Full Moon and a Dead Cat Bounce
In the past couple of weeks metals have been hit pretty hard by manipulation. I don’t mean the manipulation of prices; I mean the manipulation of the minds of weak hand investors. As I proved in my piece from the 9th of May, prices didn’t drop because of commercials closing short positions but instead due to weak hand speculators dumping contracts in a selling panic.
Those who specialize in telling people what they want to hear have immediately attempted to blame the commercials but you can’t make the price of anything go down by increasing your buying.
Due to the timing of Comex closes it’s hard to determine exactly how many days in a row silver went down but it looks as if gold and silver have gone down about 17 days of the last 20. That’s pretty unusual. So weeks ago I was looking for a tradable high, today I think we are on the verge of a dead cat bounce and perhaps a tradable low.
Tom McClellan makes a seemingly valid point that markets are affected by a full moon. And they tend to either turn direction or accelerate their move at the time of full moons. Don’t even try to figure out why that is true, it just seems to be valid.
May 10th, 2017 is a full moon.
While I am still believing we will have a major low in the June/July time frame, prices should turn now just based on the degree of the oversold condition the resource shares and metals are in today.
Last fall I wrote several articles talking about a historic opportunity to be buying shares and I was wrong. The market wasn’t nearly as bullish as I thought it would be. Now I think we are in a market that has to be traded.
So if you can buy at lows, you need to be thinking sell at tops. These are not the kind of markets where it’s reasonable to expect gains in hundreds of percent. If you have a profit, watch the COTs and DSI and when the weak hands go nuts as they always are wont to do, take some money off the table. A lot of small gains are just as good as a large gain over a much longer period.