Comments from a Reader
Feb 23, 2013
I got an email from a reader on Friday the 22nd. I asked his permission to share the comments with you.
Bob since you have been buying gold since 1969 so you would remember the 1975-77-price action. Gold was about 10 years into a bull market and prices had risen from $35/oz. Then it declined from $185-190 to $105-110, depending on whether you use an intraday high or closing high.
This time around about 10 years into the bull and gold has dropped from $1900 to about $1550, again depending on the high/low used. There has been more money printing than the 70's time frame so a decline to $1100 seems unlikely. When gold peaked at $1900 back in Sept 2011 I went back to that 1975-77 chart. The time count suggests a bottom is near or here.
All those who cry manipulation have never looked at history. I consider them poor losers because poor losers blame others for things in life that do not go their way.
After gold bottomed in 1976, it only took 12-18 months to best the $190. By March of 2014 we should be ready for new highs and all those crying manipulation will have forgotten their tears, for if gold hits new highs in 2014 manipulation was obviously not successful.
All that I can offer is that tops tend to be blow off tops where something goes vertical and then crashes down. Silver in late April of 2011 was a classical top. But bottoms tend to be shallow and subtle. The bottom in silver and gold from 1999 to 2001 was typical of bottoms. The actual low for gold was August of 1999. The actual low for silver was November of 2001. Between the two dates, the market just wandered along.
This time is different. This was a sudden plunge similar to how the stock market crashed in May of 1970 where I first invested on the very day of the bottom. Look for a rise just as violent.