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Calling Tops and Bottoms

Bob Moriarty
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Feb 22, 2013

I started buying gold in 1969 while I was in Vietnam. I looked around at the cost of the war and said to myself that we weren’t paying for it and that had to end poorly. I sold way too early, about mid-January of 1980. The top of course was January 21st, a week later with gold at $875 and silver at $50.25. I did say we were at a top on the 18th.

I became a commodities broker in 1984. The company handed me a box of contact cards from former customers. I went through them and found all the cards for the people who invested in the November of 1979 to January 1980 timeframe. Without exception, all of them were up with tremendous profits and lost it all by never selling. It wasn’t the bears who lost money in the 1979-1980-bull market in silver and gold, it was the bulls. Because they listened to the cheerleaders who told them to buy at the top.

We saw that back in April of 2011 with the major top in silver. There were guys who sprang up from nowhere who were instant gurus. One guy preached that you should sell everything you own and buy physical silver. He was screaming that at $49.80 silver. He cost people a bundle but they loved him anyway because he told them what they wanted to hear.

We just had a major, major bottom. I’m going to include a bunch of charts that show the current psychology is worse than any time in this bull market including 2001 and 2008. That’s what happens at major bottoms. The CHEERLEADERS, of course, were mumbling into their cups whining about how the “BANKSTERS” are behind all the evil in the world and manipulation is rampant. That may well be true but nobody ever made a cent investing in “MANIPULATION.”

We are going to have a massive run in gold and silver and the shares. Platinum is due a rest but it will be a nice place to be in this bull run after a rest. My favorite of the physical metals is rhodium and if you can put your hands on some, do so while it’s still cheap.

(Click on images to enlarge)

Chart courtesy of SprottPhysicalBullion.com

Sprott shows the premium that investors will pay for his physical silver ETF.

On Wednesday February 20th, 2013, investors were willing to pay the smallest premium they have ever paid for his silver ETF. It’s paper silver, no matter what Eric Sprott says. Not a single investor has ever bought the ETF and demanded physical silver. That’s a feature, not a benefit but the premium is a perfect measure of crowd psychology.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

My favorite measure of investor psychology is the XAU over gold. At tops, investors favor the shares so the XAU is high and at bottoms they favor the metal so gold is high relative to the XAU. We just hit the highest ratio in history.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Some may follow the Gold/XAU so I’ll post it as well. It’s nothing but the opposite of the XAU over gold but again, shows the highest reading in history.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

This chart shows the number of gold stocks that are bullish and it’s at the lowest level ever measured.

Gold, silver, platinum, rhodium and resource stocks are going to run. The buying pressure is like a coiled spring and is going to surprise about everyone except readers of 321gold. I want to remind readers that you don’t book a profit unless and until you sell. Don’t get caught out at the airport when your ship finally comes in.

There will be a major top one day. The same charts I have shown will do the same great job of predicting it. Just turn them over. Gold and the GDX will be up a dozen or more days in a row. There will be 100 reasons to buy. So you should sell. Sell early. A week early will be a lot better than a day late. The cheerleaders will be telling you to buy. Ignore them; they never made a cent for anyone.

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Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
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