We’ve seen the Bottom in Gold
I’ve been writing about the resource market and specifically gold and silver for almost 15 years now. Since what I write is a function of what I know and what I see, I have to keep up with what others in the industry are saying. I read probably 100 articles a day. Being a speed reader helps a lot.
So I get to see who the real people are and who is running little more than a scam telling people what they want to hear. I’d guess 80% of the writers fall in that category. We are still being fed daily doses of “manipulation” just as if it makes a difference. As far as I can tell, I have never heard of anyone making a single dime off of a belief in manipulation so it looks like noise to me. When you start reading about “naked shorts” you automatically know you are being fed hogwash. Commodities are a zero sum game with one buyer and one seller so it’s simply not possible to dump uncovered shorts onto any market. But what are facts when you are trying to sell subscriptions?
I came across a name 15 years ago that I’d guess 99% of my readers have never heard. In early 2001 he predicted a low in silver for late November of that year. That’s the kind of thing that sounds meaningless, everyone seems to believe they can predict the price of everything tomorrow and are happy to share their opinions with you. Of course none of them can call prices accurately else they would be filthy rich. At the same time the biggest “silver GURU” in the industry was predicting the world would totally run out of silver by the end of 2001. Well, the “GURU” was 100% wrong but soon forgiven since all he had done was feed the fantasies of his readers and they love you for that. I’ve followed the same guy for 20 years and every prediction he ever made was wrong but no one cares. He tells people what they want to hear and for that they love him.
I wrote two pieces in early December of 2001 about silver. I went on record as saying the price of silver had bottomed in late November at $4.01 exactly as had been predicted six months earlier by someone who didn’t have an ax to grind. James Flanagan runs Gann and made that prediction in the spring of 2001. He got it exactly correct. And to tell you the truth, I don’t know if anyone else got it. Certainly when silver topped in April of 2011, at best maybe 5-6 guys called it correctly. James Flanagan at Gann again was one and said that in 165 years of tracking the price of silver, every decline of that magnitude marked a major top.
I got something from him recently and he makes a major case that we have seen the top in the S&P/DOW and a bottom in the metals. It’s something you need to watch. We have no financial relationship with Gann so I don’t have a dog in the fight but once again I think he has nailed it.
Right under our noses, the XAU over Gold has gone up 21% in less than two weeks. It’s a major bottom similar to that of 2000 and the climb higher will be similar as well.
(Click on image to enlarge)