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Special SKI Report #253
Still-Bullish Gold Stocks

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday May 9, 2021
Published May 10, 2021

Current USERX price = 13.73, Up another 39 cents (3%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on 4/18/21, was nice and simple: Remain long off of the late March 2021 low and use the rising 92-96 index as the sell-stop (i.e., the USERX prices from 92-96 trading days earlier). That sell-stop would rise to the early January2021 top of 14.36 during the next month. Jeff expected that when I wrote the next public Update in 3 weeks, USERX would still be above that rising master 92-96 index.

During these past 3 weeks, the gold stocks (i.e., USERX with its Canadian, U.S, Australian, and South African holdings) declined multiple times to hit/touch the 92-96 index and then simply rose to avoid generating the sell-stop. That occurred the day after that last public Update was written as USERX dropped 1+% to close at 13.17 as the 92-96 index’s back prices were 12.49, 12.62, 13,12, 13.18, and 13.07. Therefore, the index was hit/touched by the typical 1-penny because the index’s highest back price was 13.18 and USERX dropped to 13.17. We bought a little more the next day as USERX rose just 2-cents to get back over all of the index’s back prices. The most recent hit/touch of the 92-96 index was last Tuesday-Wednesday (5/04/21-5/05/21). And then the gold stocks surged higher along with gold/silver on Thursday-Friday to stay ahead of the master 92-96 index. The master 92-96 index’s back prices will be rising to the early January 2021 high during the next 2 weeks. I don’t need to “predict” whether the gold stocks will rise above that intermediate-term high because the objective sell-stop will handle the situation.

The gold stocks have now risen more than 20% from the prior low when these Updates were recommending paying attention to the approaching buy. People have not shown much interest in this sector despite the meaningful gains. That’s a positive. The SKI indices can easily set up in an even more bullish manner over the next month. There’s even the potential for the set-up to parallel the two greatest bull markets in history (1979-1980 and late 2001-2002; smile).

Best wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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