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Special SKI Report #4:
from TranquilSKI

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
USERX | historicals
May 5, 2006

Special SKI Report #4

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to work. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold, since its inception approximately five years ago. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!

Three months ago, on 2/11/06, I posted an article entitled "Special SKI Report: Bull Market Corrections." That article emphasized that bull market corrections are "Hard and Fast". And the first low of that corrective period ended the next day. Two months ago, on 3/11/06, I wrote the second SKI Special Report for 321gold, again emphasizing that bull market corrections are "hard and fast", posing the question, "Did yesterday mark the low?" Again, that article was written one day after the low. And then, in the third Special SKI Report (found only on 321gold) written one month ago on 4/11/06, I wrote "Was that a perfect and important high that occurred on a classic run of 4 consecutive days up in USERX into 4/06/06 (at USERX 15.18, a new century high)? Or will this Third Special SKI Report somehow mark its third consecutive low?"

THAT WAS TIMING BINGO #3 on these Special Reports as the metals' market bottomed that day for what's been another explosive month yielding large new highs for the century. I cannot provide definitive public predictions because I must maintain the privileges of paid subscribers. Therefore, this current SKI Report continues to provide additional post-hoc (after-the-fact) SKI data to non-subscribers (and a little information about the future). I anticipate writing such "this-is-what-happened" articles approximately every two weeks (I had previously written that I would write them once a month, but I've given in to requests for approximate two-week intervals henceforth). The last one [#3] was written on 4/11/2006, so it's that time again.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. The long-term 92-96 index remains on its true and rare bull market since 8/09/2005 at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. As I've written since that date, the precious metals are expected to rise over many months and years until that index sells. That primary index currently sits at a profit of 113%, with USERX (the U.S. precious metals mutual fund) priced at 17.20. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is here. Although I use USERX for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.

Since the article one month ago, USERX and precious metals skyrocketed for exactly 5 consecutive days into 4/19/06 and Jeff sent the following sell alert (Note that I have two basic types of subscribers and subscriptions: Basic SKI provides weekend Updates designed for the longer-term buy-and-holder, whereas Premium/Alert subscribers receive additional multiple intra-week email messages designed for shorter-term investors):

"SKI Message: Jeff Start Selling message 4/19/06 10 A.M. Pacific Time
I know that I just wrote 12 hrs ago that I'd wait until Friday or so to consider doing some selling, but with gold approaching my $430
[Editor's note: SKI corrected this to $630 later, he can't keep track of the 100s anymore!]. cash target and USERX rising for the fifth day, I believe that I am prudent in starting to take my leverage off. I am selling my futures today at around $9 up. I believe that I can buy back in a week or two at a lower price. We ARE going much XXXX over the next XXXX."

What happened? I sold 30 minutes too early, but that was the high and the precious metals crashed the next day. Volatility soared and silver still hasn't fully recovered. So in hindsight, I recommended and did sell the leverage at exactly the prudent point. For your reading pleasure, laughs, and/or pain (smile), here's a partial reprint (edited to remove the critical points; sorry) of the weekend SKI Update that followed that tumultuous week. Note that this one is typical in format, but I was being particularly humorous and playful:

SKI Update

SKI ATTAINS 100% GAIN IN NINE MONTHS; DR. JEFF IS SHORT-TERM BEARISH BUT PREDICTS FURTHER ENORMOUS GAINS IN GOLD; analysts say that earnings from SKI exceed prior quarterly estimates.

Update Conclusion: XXXX, but due to volatility I advised eliminating ALL leverage on Wednesday (4/19/06). Although Wednesday's (4/19/06) run of 5 consecutive days up in USERX averaging a moderate 2% a day should have been the end of wave X up (ending of the first of XXXX explosive waves up) and result in a short-term correction of XXXX, the upside is massive and will start again within another XXXX trading days. New money should enter long on any day or two that XXXX (current price = 16.15). Note that Thursday's (4/20/06) decline already constituted more than half of the anticipated short-term correction. Jeff is exhausted and requests that you refrain from contacting him. He is on vacation from the Forum for several days.

JEFFSKI IS ON PREDICTIVE FIRE! I was getting overconfident until I wrote this Update (writing these Updates hopefully helps you, but it also helps me to gather my thoughts). I am already concerned that I will not get another decline like last Thursday's and will have to re-enter at a higher price. I will not re-enter if USERX closes at new highs, but if that happens, I will have to re-enter on the first 2% down day subsequent to new highs. JEFF is on a fire that will last for another XXXX. All statements always apply to ALL aspects of the precious metals (gold stocks, mutual funds, gold bullion and futures, and lastly, silver babies).

Here are the "I told you so's", all stated in definitive terms as they occurred:

I said that a break over USERX 15.18 on last Monday would result in an explosion. BINGO explosion.

I then alerted you on Wednesday morning (4/19/06) TO SELL on the run of 5 Up averaging 2.1% a day. BINGO crash the next day on Thursday.

I then alerted you NOT to sell on Thursday's (4/20/06) plunge. Prices rose back on Friday (4/21/06). BINGO.

I then alerted you TO SELL again on Friday morning (4/21/06). Bingo will have to await next week's human behavior and XXXX.

JEFF and SKI remain super bulls, but Jeff is calling the short-term (SKI just sits bullish and is getting wealthier by the week; I'm getting to hate him/her/it!). The intermediate term is bullish. The long-term is bullish. The short-term topped on the 5 up run on Wednesday's (4/19/06) 5 up run and is bearish again. The short-term will bottom on XXXX (and above USERX 15.18) probably at the end of XXXX. Gold should bottom at the same time around XXXX, but this is all so obvious that I am concerned that I will be wrong. Then the short-term will bottom and the next even more explosive rally will commence. I've revised my upside targets from USERX XXXX to USERX XXXX over the next two months and gold to surpass XXXX, targeting around XXXX. And then we MAY witness the great crash of 2006 in all markets (I believe the goldies will crash for XXXX, but my gut suggests that the stock markets will decline in unison, so watch out for exactly XXXX daily rises in the stock market and Jeff's call of that this XXXX. My bullish long-term stock market prediction from the 5 consecutive down day bottom following 9/11/2001 will then end; Personally I never own any stocks other than goldies, going long or short the goldies or staying in cash).

This Update continues to focus on the short-term because the intermediate and long-term trends are UUPPPP and may be greater than your dreams (nah, I've got infinitely bullish dreams).

This is a short Update because I've already written everything that I know and need to get away from the market in order to be emotionally healthy to avoid a trading error. Reread some prior Updates regarding wave counts, etc.. My colleague sold 100% on Wednesday's close (4/19/06), re-bought 100% on Thursday's close, and I thought that he'd sell 100% on Friday's close but he reneged and decided to simply relax and stay 100% long (he does not leverage and only buys/sells USERX with one phone call).

And if you believe that Thursday's utter devastation of the silver market was due to the fundamentals of them raising those margin requirements, pure technician and psychological SKIer Jeff says, "Why did they do that right at the moment after the run pattern and Jeff said to sell?" Answer: Because "they are humans and SKI predicts human behavior". Period.

Website News:

I will be presenting for an hour or two at a free investment seminar in Las Vegas on the weekend of June 24th. I will be primarily presenting introductory material under the assumption that most of the participants have little to no prior knowledge of the SKI indices or run patterns. I'd certainly enjoy spending some additional time with skiers. If you are attending and would like to get together, please drop me an email. The registration information is at http://www.trending123.com/Las-Vegas-Seminar.html.

The website has catapulted upward in visitors. I use it as a contrary indicator on gold sites (not mine since we are so new). Look at www.alexa.com for www.321gold,com and other gold sites. The high was on 2/01/06, that wave XXXX high for the goldies.



SKI (The Mechanical System) = 100% long from 8/09/05 at USERX 8.07. BULLISH

JEFF (The Person) = 75% long (down from 145% long last week) after selling all futures on Wednesday 4/19/06, some PMPIX on that day, and more on Friday's close (4/21/06). I BELIEVE THAT I SOLD THE EXACT SHORT-TERM HIGH. Jeff had the largest daily lifetime gain on Monday (4/17/06) and the largest lifetime loss on Thursday (4/20/06). Hoping for XXXX to go 175% long on all fronts into the short-term decline/low! Be a LION and have no fear. I had my happiest day in a week when the precious metals crashed on Thursday (4/20/06) and I lost a lot of money. That means even bigger profits are coming! SUPER BULLISH over the next XXXX.

SKI Futures: Initiated long April Gold core position on Wednesday 3/23/06 at $549.90, then tripled the position near the open of overnight trading at $550.60. Bought a little more on 4/4/06 at June 590.40 when gold closed down. Sold 100% on Wednesday (4/19/06) at $630. I sold one hour too early and gold instantly rose another $7 into the close (making me literally nauseous) and is now a few dollars higher than when I sold despite dropping $30 intra-day on Thursday (4/20/06. Planning to initiate a BUY for all accounts on XXXX to obtain another double/triple equity gain in the next month. And then again the next month! (See the overconfidence?; also note how Infrequently I execute, I am not a typical futures trader, I love the leverage and it's the same as owning gold and gold stocks, just with more leverage easily available).

The SKI System remains on its true and rare long-term bull market 92-96 index buy signal from 8/9/05 at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. The definitive stop on this buy signal (a 92-96 index sell signal) will be rising into the XXXX area this coming week. That stop should be XXXX, but at some point during the bull market, prices will be XXXX. The current USERX price is almost at a new century high of 16.15 so SKI is ahead 100% (We finally hit that 100% mark on SKI!). In the past three 92-96 index bull markets since 1974, the bull hasn't stopped before the index obtains gains of 85-500%.

Long-term (months to years): SKI and Jeff are XXXX due to the 92-96 index buy signal. Buy-and-holders should XXXX. The next correction in about XXXX from now is currently expected to be a large one. Long-term buy-and-holders may want to come out of suspended animation if the precious metals go parabolic to the upside into a run pattern high in XXXX. The primary issue that might argue against selling at that time, in my opinion, would be tax consequences (Jeff's philosophy: forget taxes; pay the gov't and be happy that you've made enough money to support the deficits (smile)). LONG-TERMERS NEED TO BEGIN WAKING UP: CAN YOU SEE US STARTING TO GO PARABOLIC?! IN XXXX ALL SKIERS WILL BE SELLING EXCEPT FOR SKIERS HOLDING FOR A DECADE.

Intermediate-term (weeks to months): The intermediate-term is UP. The strong up-trend should last for about XXXX with a USERX guess-target around XXXX (up XX% from today). EVEN MORE XXXX.

Short-term (days to a few weeks): Support will be rising to USERX 15.18 in 5-6 trading days. Note that USERX 15.18 was the break-out point this past week. Prices SHOULD go XXXX. I'm betting that we'll XXXX. Note how the Thursday mini-crash was 4% on USERX, about XXXX of the expected decline. That's why I "knew" that prices would rise on Friday (4/21/06), because the price target for the correction was XXXX, but corrections take more than one day; hence, we needed to rise immediately so that we can XXXX and take more time. Elliot wavers will correctly call this little short-term correction an XXXX AND WE BUY ON XXXX (makes sense?; Do you understand the reasoning that led to the perfect little prediction?)

Note: All indices and patterns are XXXX except for the short-term that WILL XXXX. There WON'T be any new index signals for XXXX. In about XXXX JEFF will turn into a bear and all markets MAY crash.


Best wishes,
fatigued Jeff

Based On Prices as of the Close of April 20, 2006

Detailed comments:

(1) This indicator is the "controlling" indicator because it came first, it is On the Path, a true bull market. The BUY prediction is for sure, meaning greater than 98% chance based on analysis of previous statistics dating back to 1974. For this signal to be canceled or reversed, prices would have to XXXX.

(2) This indicator is the "secondary" indicator because when it buys it's been profitable 100% of the time during bull markets but it is not On the Path. It usually sells at a low during bull markets, but such a bullish "sell" signal needs to be tied or come after a 16-20 index buy signal.

(3) This Indicator indicates a short-term sell signal, but prices have broken through that sell signal to the upside, indicating bullishness for several months. USERX 12.92 is a stop loss point (that should be irrelevant).

(4) When this 1 Down, 5 Up run is broken to the upside, AFTER a correction (meaning that if we rise over 16.36 on Monday, prices may NOT explode until AFTER a drop) another explosion should occur.



Whereas the prior three SKI Special Reports for 321gold all marked lows, I can obviously promise you that this one is not marking a low as USERX, the XAU, and Gold sit at new highs for the century as I write this. So is this Update "just happening to mark a high? It's dangerous to take this as a hint because I have to reserve this for my long-time readers. (Here comes more advertising). You'll learn the answer in hindsight in a month, or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price. And if you remember, I don't want a subscription cost to deter "the small investor" or "the person with special circumstances" from subscribing/profiting. Seriously, if the above applies, write to me at jeff@skigoldstocks.com.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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