Special SKI Report #286
Even Longer-Term Gold Stock Bull Index Signals

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Apr 16, 2023
Published Apr 17, 2023

Current USERX price = 10.96, Up $1.24 (11.6%) since the last report 4 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on 3/19/23, described how the decline into 3/09/23 had NOT sold the master 92-96 index and the bull market had been maintained. That decline HAD been large enough to generate a rare 884 index buy signal (the index buys on declines) that mimicked the 2020 COVID crash low. The next “needed” index signals were: (1) An imminent rise to and through the first resistance 16-20 index, and (2) A continued rise to above the 35-39 index’s red line to confirm the new intermediate-term bullish trend inside of the ongoing master 92-96 index’s bull market.

What happened? The gold stocks did rise into the 3/20/23 16-20 index’s sell signal the next day at USERX 9.99. After a mere 1-day decline (that Jeff bought), an immediate 7 consecutive rising days into 3/30/23 generated the “needed/expected” 35-39 index buy signal for both USERX and the HUI that confirmed the new intermediate-term bullish phase. That new signal (as always) executed the next day, so Jeff bought yet more on 3/31/23 as USERX declined a little to 10.48 and the HUI dropped a little to 256.18.

The focus of this Update is on the even longer-term master 218-222 index (the “221 index”) because the Regular SKI system’s 92-96 index remains in its bull market without any current hint of generating a 92-96 index sell-stop sell signal. Here’s the SKI chart for the HUI. As always, the gold stocks’ price are the black dots, blue: 16-20 index, red: 35-39 index, green: 92-96 index, faded purple: 221 index, faded red: 442 index, faded blue: 663 index, turquoise: 884 index. The HUI rose above the 221 index’s faded purple index line on 3/30/23 AND then rose above the 439-443 index’s faded red line on 4/06/23. That’s a long-term Double Buy led by the long-term system’s master 221 index. Bullish.

In the short-term, the HUI was not and is not supposed to go back below that faded red 442 index line. During this past week, the HUI needed to (and was expected to) at least remain flat or rise. After last Monday’s small decline that hit/touched the index, the HUI rose just enough on Tuesday-Wednesday to remain above the index (avoiding a 442 index sell signal), and then surged on Thursday to well above the index. On Friday, the index’s back prices (from 439-443 trading days earlier) were at 265.40, 268.63, 271.12, 273.18, and 265.13. Therefore, 442 index support was projected to be at 273.18 on Friday. “Somehow” (smile), the HUI was able to close at 273.55 on Friday’s decline.

For the even more valid USERX measure, here’s the current SKI chart. The focus is on the master 221 index’s faded purple line. After USERX rose above its red line for confirmed intermediate-term bullishness, it’s been going up along the UNDERSIDE of its 221 index. The long-term 221 index’s buy signal has NOT yet generated. Each rise to hit/touch the index towards a needed buy signal has been briefly rejected, as per this past Friday after Thursday’s rise almost generated the index’s buy signal. The index’s back prices (the pictured faded purple index line) will top in 5 trading days at USERX 11.37-11.81. Those are the index’s back prices from the high on 6/02/2022 (218-222 trading days earlier).

The conclusion is that USERX’s master 221 index buy signal “had better” generate within the next 2 weeks on either an imminent further rise or as that faded purple index line quickly plunges. The same (less-valid) HUI indices are already bullish to suggest that the long-term indices for USERX will soon follow.

Since these are long-term indices, there aren’t a lot of index signals. When USERX’s 221 index buys or sells, it’s really important. At the 2020 COVID-crash low, the index gave its first signals in years along with so many other simultaneous index signals. Conservative Jeff did call that low to the day (a Friday with oil plunging to below zero) but I wouldn’t buy-to-hold until the index gave a clear buy on 3/27/2020 at USERX 7.08. Subsequent to the August/September 2020 major gold stock high at USERX 14.76, we sold and traded via the regular SKI indices. The long-term 221 index eventually sold on 6/21/2021 at USERX 13.34 for its long-term 88% gain. That sell was NOT a bullish signal! The index then generated its next buy signal on 1/19/2022, but we didn’t execute it because the next day (“execution day” on 1/20/2022 at USERX 11.89) the gold stocks declined to generate an instant sell signal. And so, the index has essentially been “out” for a very long time, and while the Regular SKI indices maintain the current bull market, I/we await a new 221 index buy signal with the proverbial “bated breath” (smile). Of-course, I invite you to join the unique SKI-family…     

Best wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

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