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Special SKI Report #200
Bearish Gold Stock Update

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Mar 11, 2018
Published Mar 12, 2018

Current USERX price = 6.85, Down another 28 cents (4%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, from 2/18/18, was a major free update that provided a variety of SKI information warning of a continuing major decline in the gold stocks. That bearish index situation had initiated in mid-January but had become exacerbated by simultaneous sell signals from the 221 and 442 indices (comparing the current price to prices from 218-222 and 419-423 trading days earlier) that executed on 1/31/18. And after the special 2 Up and 6 Down run pattern into 2/09/18 to form a short-term low, the subsequent short-term rise to USERX 7.24 formed another special run pattern by rising for 4 consecutive days. Such run patterns have historically always (100%) marked highs. That high of 7.24 should not be exceeded until a final low is in place. Therefore, Jeff wanted to help gold stock investors preserve their capital and/or profit by being in a short position.

Since that last public report, USERX declined but then rose a little to 7.09. In doing so, it formed another somewhat special 1 Down and 2 Up run pattern into 2/26/18. Such run patterns usually (80%) mark highs. Note how USERX has never gotten over the prior 7.24 run pattern high or the subsequent 7.09 run pattern high.

Last Tuesday’s (3/06/18) 2% pop higher in the gold stocks and USERX simply hit/touched the 16-20 index’s resistance at 7.01. It too is not likely to be exceeded until after a major decline.

NOTE that the prior Major Update also included rare bearish information regarding the general stock market. It appeared that all “Risk-On” assets were in bearish synchrony. But that synchrony broke last week as the general stock market rose to negate the bearish indicators from the 2/18/18 321gold Update.

In conclusion

SKI remains distinctly bearish. There are now three resistance indices (the 16-20, the 880-885, and the 218-222 indices) sitting just slightly above the current USERX price. The decline can continue immediately but should/will become evident within XX trading days. Of-course subscribers receive much more detailed and specific information, but please avoid long positions, hedge any long positions, be short, or be disciplined with your stop-loss points to preserve your monies. The next major low (which would still constitute “just” a correction from the top in the Summer of 2016) should occur after the up-coming wave down, a rise, and then one further wave down.

Remember, as per the last Update, USERX is THE best dependent measure because it includes the effects of multiple international currencies (mainly the Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, and the South African Rand) by investing directly in some of the gold stocks in those countries, as well as in the U.S.. The SKI signals and run patterns are applicable to the broad group of gold/silver stocks and gold. Jeff does not expect SKIers to invest directly in USERX, the oldest gold mutual fund. If you’d like to listen to Jeff with an excellent interviewer (Jordan Roy-Byrne) from 2/20/18, here’s the link.

Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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