Inflation: Courtesy of Coke Chocula
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
Provided as a courtesy of Agora Publishing & DailyReckoning.com
Aug 2, 2007
I am nervously looking through
the periscope of the Mogambo Bunker Of Ultimate Defensive Posture
(MBOUDP), currently outfitted with the optional Awesome Offensive
Capabilities Package (AOCP), and I am surveying the smoking carnage
in the financial landscape bemusedly.
Investors who are still sitting
on their stocks apparently have a Big Undying Belief (BUB) in
the ability of the Fed, Wall Street and the Plunge Protection
Team (that was created by an Executive Order issued by President
Ronald Reagan to "manage" any stock market "surprise")
to keep the markets from falling, or are very stupid, or are
all playing with someone else's money, or are whacked out on
drugs either prescription, over-the-counter or illegal (or all
three at once), or something even more bizarre, like believing
in the complete absence of counter-party risk in the hedge "insurance"
provided by buying enormous amounts of mysterious derivatives
at huge degrees of leverage.
And stockholders are screwed
anyway, because even if everybody sells all their stocks, where
in the hell do they put all that money? They have to put it into
bonds, just because there is no other market so big that it can
absorb so, so, so damned much money! And central banks of the
world are making more money and credit all the time, too, to
add to the pressure!
Thus the yield on all U.S.
Treasury debt fell to less than 5% last week when the stock
market sold off and all that money went into bonds. This
"flight to the safety of U.S. bonds" is a Very Poor
Move (VPM) because, thanks to Shadowstats.com, we know that consumer
price inflation (as measured by the old-fashioned way of measuring
the increase in consumer prices) is running at around 10% (or
more!) right now!
So, by buying bonds, these
yahoos are getting a nominal yield of less than half of the rate
of inflation? Out of which they have to pay a lot of taxes, commissions,
fees and expenses, so that they actually end up losing money
at a rate that is nearly triple - TRIPLE! - the bond yield that
they are buying? Hahahaha! What morons!
This is the modern way to "make
money"? They think that they are making money by literally
losing three times as much purchasing power as they are making?
Hahahaha! This is the best that "investment professionals"
can do? Hahahaha! We're freaking doomed! And your retirement
account is in the hands of these guys? Hahaha! YOU'RE freaking
Okay, okay, I admit that is
not really fair, as federal rules require that they remain fully
invested, and that means that they can't sell even if they wanted
to, which gets back to the absolute arrogance and stupidity of
the people we elect to Congress (except Ron
Paul) who made these laws, and the average American idiots
who, even knowing this, keep putting their money into these investments!
Well, as wrong as they are
about that, they are even more wrong when they actually believe
that owning precious metals is so old-fashioned and stupid, and
how they are so smart to be making whole scads of money in a
stock market that is still priced at an astonishing price-to-earnings
ratio of nearly 20!
A P/E of 20 means that you
are spending twenty bucks to buy a share of stock in a company
that makes one lousy dollar per year per share! In other words,
the company itself will not earn enough to equal what you paid
for it until after twenty long, long years of waiting and hoping.
Then, twenty years from now, maybe you will finally see some
profit from your investment. Wow! What optimism!
This is why this "P/E
of 20" thing is around the point where all previous stock
markets, both on this planet you call Earth and in all the other
planets in the cosmos, both now and in all of history, eventually
fell, corrected, or collapsed and ruined the hell out of everything.
In case you were wondering,
the historical average P/E for a stock or stock market is around
12 to 14 or so, although it has gotten down to around 4 to 7
or so at big market bottoms and around 20 at the tops of bull
In short, stocks ain't cheap,
and the evidence is that there are Very, Very, Very Few (VVVF)
instances in history where stocks went from expensive (like they
are now), to even more expensive, to very expensive, to extremely
expensive, to ridiculously expensive over the long term, thus
explaining why there are no stories of legendary speculators
who made plenty big wampum by "buying high and selling high".
Perhaps this is why the market wisdom of "sell high"
appears only after the admonition to "buy low", and
not after "buy high".
But this is not about how we
are the biggest bunch of buttheads in the universe for coupling
the economy, the government, everybody's assets and everybody's
retirement accounts with a manufactured inflation in the stock,
bond, government and housing markets, because if those markets
ever stop going up, everything else will stop going up, too,
and this means that the Fed would be pressured to continue inflating
the money supply forever, which means that inflation in consumer
prices will continue forever, too, regardless of how insanely,
criminally irresponsible it is for the Federal Reserve to do
so, or how even MORE criminally irresponsible it is for the Congress
(except for Ron Paul) to abet and oblige it to do so.
And neither is this about how
all of this terrifying inflation requires that the money and
credit needed by the new buyers will be created out of thin air
by the banking system, and sure enough, Total Fed Credit has
been going freaking bananas since 1997, and the stock, bond,
real estate and government markets have been going freaking bananas
since then, too, all thanks to the horrid Alan
Greenspan, who will surely go to straight to hell when he
dies because of all the misery, suffering and deaths that will
happen as a direct result of him increasing Total Fed Credit
continuously for all (pause for dramatic effect) those (pause)
years, and thus increasing the money supply for all (pause) those
(pause) years, and now we are going to have inflation in consumer
prices for (insert a long, overly dramatic pause, during which
you may take a drink, scratch something that itches, or smoke
'em if you got 'em) FREAKING YEARS TO COME!!!!
And new evidence of increases
in consumer prices comes from Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Chuck
from Billings, who reports that the inflationary rise in the
price of breakfast cereals is being disguised by re-sizing the
boxes down to a smaller size, with the sneaky result that you
pay the same amount of money for a box of cereal, but get less
cereal, which is the alternative to making you pay more money
to get the same amount of cereal.
JMR Chuck figures that this
new packaging strategy "will result in approximately a 13%
decrease in the amount of product in each box, in order to avoid
a price increase (!). Can it just be coincidence that this is
also the approximate increase in the money supply? And that it
reflects the actual rate of price inflation? Um, no, stupid question,
food price increases are not reflected in the CPI, so there is
nothing to worry about. We are all FREAKING DOOMED TO EAT SMALLER
BOWLS OF CEREAL!"
As an aside, The Economist
magazine reports that (in England, anyway) "cocaine is cheaper
now than it was a decade ago." A decade! Maybe the new way
that the government/Fed calculates its hedonically-jiggered inflation
statistics, "proving" that inflation is always going
down or is even "benign", is actually correct in some
The lesson of this? When you
can't afford food because of the rising cost of food, you can
use the Fed's new "substitution effect", which is to
substitute cocaine (which went down in price) for food (which
went up in price) in your market basket, and thus inflation is
reduced to less than zero for you! Hahaha! Who knew? Drugs as
an anti-inflationary device! And probably lose a lot of weight,
Or maybe the government/Fed
will just disguise the inflation in breakfast cereals by pricing
breakfast cereals as "dollars per box" and not "cents
per ounce"! Therefore, since the price per box did not go
up because there is less cereal in each box, inflation in cereals
would be zero!
And with the "substitution
effect" in play, we can then assume that the Fed will say
that all consumers would try to escape higher prices in other
foodstuffs by switching to breakfast cereals (which still cost
the same in "dollars per box"), which in turn would
be substituted by cocaine (which went down in price), driving
overall inflation in food to less than zero! Hahaha!
And the breakfast cereal company
itself would have to be pretty stupid not to at least mention
how they are selling more boxes of cereal (although neglecting
to mention that they are actually selling less actual cereal
since each box has less cereal in it), hopefully driving the
stock, and the stock options of the executives, up! And taking
the whole stock market up with it!
This inflation thing, not to
mention the lying about it, makes me so crazy with anger that
I was going to the window to throw open the sash and begin to
again verbally assail my stupid neighbors for being such economic
dimwits, and how they are going to pay dearly for their economic
and financial follies, and for their political folly of consistently
electing, "I Love Big Government Programs" morons and
moronettes to the federal government (except Ron Paul), who immediately
turned the government into a giant giveaway machine, and how
that is EXACTLY what the Founding Fathers were trying to prevent
when they took steps to make sure that the government did NOT
have the power to create the money to spend and expand, and they
did this by requiring that money be only of silver (and gold)
for the sole reason that the government cannot just print the
And to tell the truth, I like
screaming at them because I love the looks on their stupid faces
when I tell them how long and loud I am going to laugh at them,
my voice dripping with contempt, and how much I will enjoy watching
them suffer from the precipitous decline in their living standards
that they will be forced to endure.
Well, I was halted in mid-stride
towards the window when my thunder was suddenly available, with
no work, from Bob Wood of Kaizen Managed Assets, who quotes Jens
Parsson from his book, Dying of Money. He writes, "Everyone
loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation
are all good. There is steeper money expansion, rising government
spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock
markets, and spectacular general prosperity, all in the midst
of temporarily stable prices.
"This is the early part
of the cycle. In the later inflation, on the other hand, the
effects are all bad. The government may steadily increase the
money inflation in order to stave off the latter effects, but
the latter effects patiently wait. In terminal inflation, there
is faltering prosperity, tightness of money, falling stock markets,
rising taxes, still larger government deficits, and still roaring
money expansion, now accompanied by soaring prices and ineffectiveness
of traditional remedies."
The tragic summary is that
in the beginning of a monetary inflation, "Everyone benefits
and no one pays." Unfortunately, at the end, "Everyone
pays and no one benefits. This is the full cycle of every inflation."
I bring this up not because
I love bringing this up (although I do, and in fact I perseverate
about inflation in some bizarre, mentally ill, one-track-mind
focus all the time because it scares the living hell out of me),
but because Total Fed Credit did NOT go up last week! In fact,
it went down by another $3.7 billion! Yow! You can't have inflation
without creating the money to make it happen!
In fact, TFC has actually been
relatively constant at around $855 billion for the last nine
months or so, the longest stretch of "stable" TFC in
Fed history since 1997! (Before that, TFC didn't change all that
much on an annual percentage basis).
I say that this is causing
what is making the stock and housing markets go down; the lagged
effect of the cessation of the constant, continual creation of
excess money and credit needed to finance a bull market finally
overwhelms mere momentum bullishness!
If so, there will be plenty
more to come!
--There was no MoGu last
week, as I was in Vancouver, British Columbia, at the Agora
Financial Investment Symposium, where I realized that since
I was out of America, I could take off as much time as I wanted,
go anywhere I pleased, do what I wanted, anytime I wanted, as
you, your stupid American work ethic and your puny extradition
laws mean nothing to me, The Mogambo In Canada (TMIC)! Hahaha!
I laugh in scorn at your impotence!
The speech itself went well,
in case you were wondering, after the awkwardness of the usual
preliminary questions ("Who the hell are you?" and
"How did you get past security?"), whereupon I just
rushed to the stage and started yammering into the microphone
while making menacing gestures to anyone who approached me, like
Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Chip W., who instinctively knew better
than to tangle with a halfwit lunatic, and everyone else took
their cue from him.
Anyway, there are (as surprising
as it is) a group of pathetic people whose lives are so barren,
so lifeless, so devoid of anything remotely interesting that
they have sadly sunk to the desperate point that they actually
asked to read the speech I gave at the symposium.
And since I am already revealed
as a lazy, undependable halfwit who just takes off whenever he
feels like it, I can nevertheless show both a little graciousness
by granting the wishes of these wretches and a little Effortless
Mogambo Productivity (EMP) in output by merely posting the text
of the speech, as actually given by The Mogambo Guru, titled:
"We Know What We Know"
As I look out over the audience,
I sense that the majority of you are wondering, "Who in
the hell is this Mogambo Guru jerk and is he going to say anything
helpful or even interesting?"
The short answer to your rude
question is "no". I can only hope that your disappointment
is attenuated by the fact that you have a very keen eye for people,
and have already correctly deduced that I have no idea what in
the hell I am talking about half the time, thus turning my whole
presentation here today, titled "We Know What We Know",
into both a big lie and a complete waste of your valuable, valuable
So while it is obvious that
I do not seem to understand even the rudimentary basics of things
like interpersonal social skills, or how a laundry hamper works,
or how to ever think of anything but me, me, me, all the damned
time, me, me, me, or (getting back to the theme here about crisis
and opportunity in Asia) how those crafty Chinese bakers get
those tiny little slips of paper inside those fortune cookies,
I do know a little bit about money and how it works, especially
in regards to the times when you don't have any money, and you
need some money, and all the people you ask to borrow some money
from only want to talk about when you are going to pay them back
the money you already borrowed from them, and you tell them that
is not the point, and then they say it IS the point, and you
say no it isn't the point, and they say yes it is, and you say
it isn't, and it goes on and on like that, back and forth, back
I bring this up not because
I am an untrustworthy, vicious, deadbeat psychopath who gets
into a lot of arguments, which is another whole story in itself,
but because this is one of the things included in the category
of We Know What We Know, which is that it all comes back, as
everything always does, to The Money.
And I know this even though
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote the book The
Black Swan, says, "The gap between what you know and
what you think you know is always dangerously wide", which
is such a pleasant way of telling me that I am an idiot that
I wish everyone would adopt such a similarly genteel manner.
And as a guy whose total knowledge
base about Asia is pretty much limited to the fact that I eat
a lot of Chinese food and can probably find China on a map no
matter how drunk I get, this knowledge gap is obviously substantial.
But I attempt to make up for my lack of education or smarts by
concentrating on remembering a very few things that are universal.
Such as money. And not just
The Money - oh, noooo! - but about the effects of creating too
much money and too much credit, which are always very, very bad,
because another of the things that we know is that all that excess
new money and credit eventually drives up consumer prices, and
continuing to expand the money supply drives prices so high that
people are angry and very vocal - and then bad, bad things happen.
So while I am completely clueless
about the "opportunities" alluded to in the theme of
this symposium, namely "Crisis and Opportunity in the New
Asian Era", I am frighteningly aware of the inflationary
crises that will doubtlessly arise in this new Asian economy,
and all the busts and booms that it will entail, as the stupid
Asian authorities and economies are but another lame imitation
of the stupid American authorities and economy, only smaller,
in that they have committed the cardinal sins of accepting a
fiat currency as money, and installed a corrupt banking system
under a controlling central bank that is empowered to create
massive amounts of money, credit and debt via unlimited fractional-reserve
banking, the same as (I am very, very sorry to say) everywhere
Therefore, the cycle of booms
and ruination of the economy by inflation in consumer prices
is as guaranteed in China as it is everywhere else.
In fact, the Chinese already
have a lot of the same stupid economic ideas that have come to
predominate in America, like mercantilism, a willingness to believe
a complete load of theoretical economic hooey, and a huge governmental
apparatus thus made necessary to regulate and control everything
by brute force.
Mercantilism, in case you forgot,
is a belief in the necessity of state intervention in the regulation
of foreign trade, imposing tariffs on imports and the encouragement
of subsidized exports, all for the purpose of economic domination
and eventually owning all the marbles of the world, which is
not a bad deal if you are the one who ends up owning all the
marbles. As Mel Brooks so famously said in his movie History
of the World, Part One while playing a despotic, egomaniacal,
and thoroughly lascivious, licentious French king just prior
to the French Revolution, "It's good to be king!"
As regards tariffs, I think
a quote from the book titled, On the Wealth of Nations, by P.J.
O'Rourke has the perfect edge of vicious sarcasm when he writes
that there are parallels between the plight of feudal serfs and
that of people today, in that the universal, timeless constant
is that "Unable to stop trade, the nobility instituted a
protection racket", namely tariffs that were, in Adam Smith's
own words in The Wealth of Nations, "levied upon the persons
and goods of travelers."
Mr. O'Rourke never actually
got to the point where he called governments and their nasty
tariffs and levies a bunch of corrupt, thieving liars and filthy
scumbags, although, if he had asked me, I would have been more
than happy to say those exact words for him. Instead, he prefers
to quote Adam Smith - a dead guy! - directly to prove my point
that everything that the government does is about corruption,
lying and personal aggrandizement by saying that even in the
18th century, "protection was seldom granted without a valuable
The classical, primary objection
to all of this tariff stuff is that it benefits the domestic
producers (who are always friends of the rulers and legislators
who create these tariffs) at the ultimate expense of the domestic
consumer, mostly in the form of higher consumer prices, as the
costs of all those tariffs and fees and costs are passed along.
And you only have to read a
little bit of history, or listen to me run my big fat mouth for
just a few minutes, before you learn that it is inflation in
prices that is the killer of economies and countries.
The other ugliness of this
tariffs and duties crap is what the government then does with
the money it collects in tariffs; it spends the money by increasing
in size, creating more permanent programs and spending more money,
making the government bigger and more costly on top of the higher
prices people already have to pay for imported goods! A double
But even that ugly mercantilist
corruption pales in comparison to the unrestrained use of fiat
currencies, like the American dollar, and like the Chinese yuan,
and like all of the world's currencies these days, and especially
when leveraged with outrageous degrees of fractional reserve
banking, which will always, always, always be used to create
too much money and credit because it is just too, too irresistible.
Like being hungry and getting
offered tacos four for a buck! How can you say no? It's too irresistible!
And the problem is always that
all of this borrowing shows up as inflation in the money supply,
which is the actual definition of inflation, and which is already
increasing at about 14% in China. And monetary inflation must
always lead to inflation in the consumer prices of some things,
then to inflation in the prices of a lot of things, and then
to inflation in the prices of most things, and then to inflation
in the prices of all things, and prices always increase faster
And all you have to do to see
how THAT is working out is to stand up, go over to the window
and shout out, "Hey! Hey! Hey, you! Yeah, you! How do you
like your financial situation, now that inflation in prices is
eating you alive? Ya like that? Huh? Do ya? Do you like paying
higher and higher prices for everything, you stupid moron?"
And to show you what a darling
I am, I will save you the trouble of actually conducting such
an experiment, and just tell you that experience has consistently
shown that people don't like it very much at all, and there are
usually a lot of people shouting hateful things like, "Shut
up, Mogambo! Shut the hell up, you raving lunatic, or I'm calling
the cops again!" and using a lot of bad words, and then
one thing leads to another, and pretty soon you realize that
your neighbors are a bunch of low-life morons and idiots who
have no freaking idea what in the hell they are doing.
And then they get all huffy
with their noses all bent out of joint when you politely and
thoughtfully take a lot of your time to patiently educate them
to the fact that they are a bunch of retarded, conceited, butthead
wankers, and that this inflation in the money supply is the asinine
and stupid poison that is killing the United States of America,
is killing all other countries in the developed world, and will
be killing Asia and China!
And then the whole thing gets
weirder and weirder until it ends with everybody yelling and
the police running around, hollering into their megaphones and
demanding that you come out with your hands up, like these idiot
storm trooper Gestapo goons think that hassling me is going to
stop the inflation in consumer prices or something! See what
I mean about morons being everywhere? Jeez!
And in Asia, as everywhere
else, politicians and banks, as with most all politicians and
most all banks, including the Chinese governments and Chinese
banks of today, are greedy, slimy, corrupt, conceited, lying,
thieving, ignorant, stupid, vicious, venal vampires who are always
willing to accept and defend outrageous expansions of the money
supply, and the unholy expansion of the system of governments,
because it is so pleasant for them and their nasty little friends.
And too much is never enough!
Hell today, in 2007, most governments are now so large that they
spend at least a third of GDP, and consume half of all incomes!
In America, the system of governments directly employs one out
of seven workers and directly supports half of all Americans!
Which, as horrific as it sounds
and as horrific as it is, I assume is mere chickenfeed when compared
to the impact of government in China, which has been at this
societal control thing for a long, long time and all that government
apparatus is still there in one way or another!
From a theoretical and historical
perspective, to even propose such a colossal stupidity for an
economic system is beyond preposterous, and is out in the range
known as Theatre of the Absurd, which is seldom actually funny
although it sounds like it should be, but which will be the only
funny thing you are going to see on the mournful way to the next
step of Kafkaesque fascism and the repressive police state that
will be needed to contain rioting citizens when the inflation
in prices and the collapse in the economy destroys them utterly.
And yet, as ludicrous as it
sounds, thanks to a fiat dollar, an irresponsible Federal Reserve
and a complicit Congress, here we are! And as ludicrous as THAT
sounds, it is the same story in China, only coming from a very
This is insane! Insane, I tells
And what does this have to
do with "Rim of Fire: Crisis & Opportunity in the New
Asian Era"? It means that there may be many, many opportunities
for profitable investment in the New Asian Era, but being kind
of stupid and lazy in that regard, I would, of course, not have
any idea what in the hell any of these opportunities could possibly
Fortunately, Agora Publishing,
and the guests they have invited to speak to you, all say that
they do, and I will leave that to them.
And since I, the all-seeing
Mogambo, cannot wax eloquent and prescient about opportunities
in the New Asian Era, then three questions should spring instantly
to your mind:
1. What in the hell am I talking
2. What does it have to do
with the Chinese economy, and the people who invest in China?
3. How can people make some
money on this thing?
Well, for one thing, when the
inevitable decline starts when prices get so high that consumers
can no longer afford their previous standard of living and people
start selling assets to get the money to pay their bills, the
central banks will want to lower interest rates in a panic until
they reach a point where people and businesses are compelled
to borrow, bereft of any semblance of self-control in the presence
of this fabulous, screaming, once-in-a-lifetime bargain of being
offered money at less than the rate of inflation, and theoretically
everyone (including the government itself) will borrow, borrow,
borrow more and more money, to buy more and more and more things,
reversing any and all declines in asset prices!
I tilt my head backward and
laugh the hollow laugh of the damned, "Hahaha!"
And if the weird symbolism
of a bizarre man laughing bizarrely at a bizarre economic situation
is not enough, that frightful laugh also means that the Chinese
are going to learn a lot of very ugly lessons in modern real-world
economics, just as all groups of idiots have learned a lot of
very ugly lessons about wallowing in the abomination of a fiat
currency and/or massive expansions of bank reserves to support
a huge, expansive, controlling government, and which is exactly
the lesson that the United States is learning, again, right now.
And fortunately for an idiot
like me, there are but few constants in all of economic history
to learn. And it is all made easier that the big constant, the
one really big constant in the whole universe is that a fiat
currency that is expanded by massive excesses of money and credit
is the essence of the cooties of inflation.
And if you are not a doctor
and don't have much experience with treating cooties, suffice
it to say that eventually everything the cooties of inflation
touches is destroyed.
Another timeless lesson is
"except for the people who had gold."
And so with expansionary governments,
all being financed by fiat currencies and insane levels of fractional-reserve
banking in a corrupt environment that is already expanding the
American money supply by 13% a year and the Chinese money supply
by 14%, the "opportunity" is the same "opportunity"
that I see all around me right now.
And that is to buy
gold; it is so historically cheap, and the world is so bizarre
and divorced from any semblance of economic normalcy, that I
calculate that the odds stand at eight zillion to zero that such
a condition has never lasted, and the result has always been
that people who owned gold made out like freaking bandits.
And in the hearts of grubby,
greedy speculator trash like me, the words "made out like
freaking bandits" ring sweet and clear. And I hope to you,
too, so that you are moved to run out and load up on gold, and
then one day in the future when gold is selling at astronomical
amounts of money, and there is chaos all around you, you will
say to yourself "Wow! I'm rich as hell, and everyone else
is not! That Mogambo idiot was right about gold! Too bad he was
such a creepy and hateful little man!"
Yes, it really is too, too
bad. But ending up rich as the result of performing absolutely
no work, except for reading a little history, has a way of making
And for those whose tastes
run more to Schadenfreude, even better will be that all others
will have done so poorly because they did not buy gold, and now
you can buy and sell them and their miserable little lives anytime
you want, or even financially crush them like the insignificant
little worms that they are, and you can laugh at them, and make
fun of them, and tell them to get off your lawn and throw empty
beer cans at them when they don't move fast enough to suit you,
just like they have done to you all those years.
And won't that be nice?
(End of speech).
Mogambo sez: The money is desperately running back
and forth between stocks, bonds, real estate and currencies,
in and out, up and down, around and around.
And as these markets must all
trend down from these severely overpriced levels, the majority
of people will continually lose more and more money, and they
will only find true enlightenment when they consider gold, especially
when the majority get to the party late, and then only after
seeing all the gigantic money being made by people who already
got into gold, silver
Then it truly gets interesting.
And lots and lots of fun if you are one of the ones who already
owns gold, silver and oil!
Aug 1, 2007
Provided as a courtesy of Agora Publishing and The
is general partner and C.O.O. for Smith Consultant Group, serving
the financial and medical communities, and the writer/publisher
of the Mogambo Guru economic newsletter, an avocational exercise
the better to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve
it. The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron's, The
and other fine publications.
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