Understanding China, Gold & SeasonalityStewart Thomson
Jul 7, 2015
- The pressure on the US stock market continues to grow. Please click here now. Note my red annotations on this key S&P500 earnings chart.
- With QE gone, rate hikes on the horizon, wage pressures growing, and the business cycle peaking, it’s a “no brainer” that US corporate earnings are disintegrating.
- Also, the ongoing American government attempts at regime change in the Mid-East have turned into a nightmare. It’s likely just a matter of time before a horrific attack on American soil causes another 911-style US stock market crash.
- The US stock picker can do well, even in a down market, but the focus for the index investor needs to be China and India, with some caveats.
- Please click here now. This Dow Jones chart compares the price action of Chinese A shares, where Chinese gamblers operate, to the Hong Kong H shares market that I focus on.
- Price to earnings ratios on the A shares market are the highest of any major market in the world, and they are the lowest for the H shares market. Clearly, Hong Kong has barely “yawned” over the past few weeks.
- It’s important for the Western gold community to understand that China is home to the world’s biggest gambling community. The average Chinese A shares investor holds a stock for about two to three weeks. Then they sell it, and take another gamble.
- In the West, this magnitude of gambling is unheard of and difficult to conceptualize, but it’s nothing out of the ordinary in China. To keep the gamblers reasonably happy at the tables, the PBOC (Chinese central bank), Chinese brokerages (bookies in suits?), and the country’s sovereign wealth fund have all recently committed various types of support to the A shares market.
- I make such large dividends from my Chinese H shares that capital gains are irrelevant. The bottom line is that the A shares market is a fabulous casino for the world’s biggest gamblers, while the H shares offer value-oriented Western investors outstanding long term value.
- What about gold? Well, please click here now. That’s the seasonal gold futures chart, courtesy of Dimitri Speck. I’ve highlighted the typical “triple bottoming action” that tends to occur in the June – August timeframe.
- Please click here now. That’s the daily gold chart. I’ve highlighted the seasonal price action on it. This year, the gold chart looks like it came out of a seasonal chart textbook. Gold made a low in mid-June, briefly rallied, and has declined, in typical seasonal manner, into the first week of July.
- Another short rally can be expected from “about now”. That rally should be followed by a slow decline into a final seasonal low in the first week of August.
- There’s more good news for gold investors. Please click here now. This spectacular chart from Saxo Bank shows the action of leveraged hedge funds on the COMEX. Conspiracy buffs often refer to it as the “CRIMEX”, partly because a lot of the trades put on by banks classified as “commercial” traders appear to be more speculative than commercial.
- Regardless, the Saxo chart is a contrarian gold investor’s friend. I’ve highlighted the peaks and troughs of hedge fund buying with green and gold circles, and done the same thing with the gold price.
- It’s clear that the funds have been major gold buyers at market highs, and major gold sellers at market lows. Right now, the funds are holding a record short position, just as gold tends to make a major seasonal low!
- Please click here now. Fans of central bank action in the gold market should repeatedly read this key document from Yao Yudong of the PBOC. Note the critical importance he assigns to gold for the internationalization of the renminbi (yuan). Of the seven key points Yao makes, two of them focus directly on gold.
- Gold can play a key role in solving the global liquidity problems that will occur in the expanding sovereign debt crisis. Western media focuses on the role of government, committees, and banks. China focuses on the role of gold. As more socialist governments get elected around the world, I suspect China’s focus on gold will be the one ultimately chosen by the rest of the world.
- Government committees can’t even handle the Greek sovereign debt crisis. How will they handle a Spanish crisis, an Italian crisis, a Portugal crisis, and, ultimately, an American crisis?
- Please click here now. That’s the daily silver chart. Silver looks better than gold right now, but rallies and declines are ultimately determined by gold itself. As with gold, silver investors probably need just another month of patience, before the good times begin to roll!
- Attention gold stock enthusiasts, please click here now. This Goldcorp daily chart is very important, for a number of reasons.
- First, Goldcorp is the largest holding in the GDX ETF. It has swooned while competitors like Agnico Eagle and Newmont have rallied. I think that’s about to change, and so does Swiss monster bank Credit Suisse.
- Their analysts have just issued a $24 target for Goldcorp, and have rated it “outperform”. From a technical perspective, amateur chartists may tend to think the recent decline below the late December lows in the $16.77 area was a “breakdown”.
- Support and resistance zones are not “black and white” affairs. Goldcorp appears to be successfully testing the December lows, and the enormous bull wedge pattern puts the stock in sync technically, with the fundamental analysis from Credit Suisse analysts.
- Please click here now. That’s the daily GDX chart. Note the great position of my 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator, at the bottom of the chart. If Goldcorp begins to rally, and I think it will, GDX could stage a powerful rally, even in the face of a modest seasonal decline in the gold price!
Jul 7, 2015
email for questions: firstname.lastname@example.org
email to request the free reports: email@example.com
|Tuesday 22nd Sep 2020
Special Offer for 321Gold readers: Send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org and I'll send you my free “Golden Grid Lines!” report. I highlight the key technical buy and sell points of action for some of the world’s most exciting mining stocks trading under $20 a share. I also cover key danger points for the US stock market in this report!
Updates Subscription Service: Note we are privacy oriented. We accept cheques.
And credit cards thru PayPal only on our website. For your protection
we don't see your credit card information. Only PayPal
|Subscribe via major credit cards
- or make checks payable to: "Stewart Thomson" Mail
to: Stewart Thomson / 1276 Lakeview Drive / Oakville, Ontario
L6H 2M8 / Canada
is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland
Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The
newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered
point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable
Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided
by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes
only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative
that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced
and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before
taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the
world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking
or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not
know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly
concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products.
There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with
a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line: