So Many Triggers
It’s not a story that’s likely to appear on the evening news, but it certainly should.
Deutsche Bank has announced that it will create more shares, selling them at a 35% discount. Existing shareholders have not been pleased and, in the first four days since the offer was announced, the value of existing shares dropped by 13% as shareholders began dumping them. So, why on earth would Germany’s foremost bank (one that in normal times provides loans to the government) do something so rash? Well, in recent years, the bank has been involved in many arbitrations, litigations and regulatory proceedings as a result of fraudulent activities, including the manipulation of markets. Having been found guilty, they presently owe 7.2 billion dollars to the US Department of Justice and are now facing an additional 10 billion dollar litigation bill. Unfortunately, the bank is already broke and, should Deutsche actually be able to sell the new shares, the 8.6 billion dollars they hope to receive will still not save them from bankruptcy.
Business has also not been so good. They’ve lost nearly two billion dollars in the last two years, instituted a hiring freeze, cut bonuses by 80% and are facing a 2.5 million dollar civil penalty to pay to the Commodities Future Trading Commission for failure to report swap transactions and, not surprisingly, have been downgraded.
The German government has stated that they will not bail out Deutsche and, indeed, under the EU agreement, they cannot do so. It’s safe to say that Germany’s largest bank will soon go the way of the dodo.
For those who don’t live in Europe, this may not seem all that significant. However, Deutsche is the bank that funds the euro system, which they can now no longer do. Further, Deutsche is ten times larger than Lehman Brothers, an American bank that famously went down in 2008, heralding in that year’s economic crash. (Ninety percent of Deutsche’s revenue has been from derivative trading, which is what brought down Lehman.)
Upon the collapse of Deutsche Bank, four major US banks would be expected to become insolvent in a matter of days. The ripples would then continue to spread outward into the economic system as a whole.
Now for the Bad News
For many years, I’ve made repeated reference to the fact that the Western powers have been headed south economically, repeatedly making moves that would provide short-term gain, but would ultimately create long-term pain. They’ve been remarkably consistent and steadfast in this trend and, at this point, Deutsche is merely the latest trigger that may bring down the system. The other potential triggers are as serious as they are diverse.
These are just a few select high points and there are quite a few other triggers out there, any of which, if pulled, would serve to collapse the economy very quickly. And the list keeps growing.
The question is not “if” but “when”. In the end, it will matter little which trigger it will be, as, like a string of firecrackers, when one explodes, a chain reaction is set off. Therefore, anyone who is dependent in a significant way upon the government, financial institutions and/or markets of any of the major Western powers, he’s likely to understandably feel like the fellow in the photo above.
Is There Any Good News?
There may be, but only for those who are able to extricate themselves from the systems in the previous paragraph.
Those who remove their money from banks (both deposits and safe deposit boxes) may stand a better chance of not losing it.
Those who have a company pension or government pension can expect to lose the income, but those who have an IRA or similar fund can transfer it into a gold IRA in a foreign country that’s less exposed than the Western powers.
Those who own stocks and bonds can choose to liquidate them and invest the proceeds in real estate and precious metals in a country that’s less likely to be affected.
Those who live in an affected country can expect to be facing, at best, civil unrest following a crash and, possibly, riots or even revolutionary activities. But those who secure alternate legal residency and/or a physical address abroad, may be able to step away from the fray before it impacts them directly.
At this point, the writing is most vividly on the wall. The degree to which the individual is spared the effects of the coming debacle will depend directly upon the degree to which he has removed himself from the system beforehand.
Jeff Thomas is British and resides in the Caribbean. The son of an economist and historian, he learned early to be distrustful of governments as a general principle. Although he spent his career creating and developing businesses, for eight years, he penned a weekly newspaper column on the theme of limiting government. He began his study of economics around 1990, learning initially from Sir John Templeton, then Harry Schulz and Doug Casey and later others of an Austrian persuasion. He is now a regular feature writer for Casey Research’s International Man, Strategic Wealth Preservation in the Cayman Islands and 321Gold.