Weekend Report
Alpha Trend Analysis Gold Stock Report

Erich K. Soltes
21 November, 2005

This is the first of my new weekend Gold Stock reports. Every weekend I will be writing a newsletter about the stocks that make up the HUI and XAU indices. Since this is for long term traders, I will be using weekly charts, which allows investors a clear picture of the longer term trends.

Below is an explanation of the three windows of the charts and a description of each of the indicators.

In the top window is my internal strength indicator (represented by a bold blue line) this measures the strength of the security in relation to its movement between the upper and lower 3rd alpha wave bands.

The internal strength indicator is considered overbought above minus twenty (-20), and oversold below minus eighty (-80). In addition to the internal strength indicator there are two other indicators. The thin blue indicator represents the value of the last time the internal strength indicator reversed direction to the downside. The thin red line represents the value of the last time the internal strength indicator reversed direction to the upside.

In the middle widow the Long/Short position is indicated, one (1) represents a long position, minus one (-1) represents a short position. A zero (0) represents a neutral position. The Bold blue line is for long term traders and the thin red line is for short term traders.

In the bottom chart the main trend line for a security is the Alpha Trend this is represented by the bold red line. It is from this trend line that all other support/resistance lines are developed. The Alpha Trend is an adaptive moving average that uses proprietary mathematical formulas to create the base line movement of the selected security. From the Alpha Trend, I then created three separate progression/regression price areas using Fibonacci ratios, which I call the 1st Alpha waves, 2nd Alpha waves and 3rd Alpha waves. It is these three wave areas that define the vast majority of a security's price movement. Moving out from the Alpha Trend, the 1st Alpha waves are represented by the dark blue lines. This is the price range that a security will normally move to once the Alpha Trend line is crossed in either direction. Next are the 2nd Alpha waves which are represented by the light blue lines. It is this area between the 2nd Alpha waves where 79.82% of the time a security's price will remain. Last are the 3rd Alpha waves which are represented by the violet lines. Once a security's price reaches this area it is in an extreme overbought/oversold condition. A security can stay in this area for awhile, but this usually represents a poor price in which to place a trade in the prevailing trend.

The next four moving averages are the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend represented by the bold violet line. The timeframe for this moving average is the following, on the daily chart it is 240 trading days, on the weekly chart it 52 trading weeks, and on the monthly chart it is 12 trading months. The next moving average is the short term alpha trend line represented by the bold black line. The next moving average is a simple moving average of the lows when the internal strength indicator is trending up. This moving average is represented by the bold blue line. The last moving average is a simple moving average of the highs as the internal strength indicator is trending down. This moving average is represented by the bold green line.

Editor's note: Click on the images to enlarge the charts.

AGNICO EAGLE
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 13.84
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 12.1409 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 13.4028.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 10.2882 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 13.6279.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 15.18.

ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 40.76
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 14.2279 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 37.8717.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 20.9947 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 35.7536.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 45.17.

BARRICK GOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 26.22
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 2.2141 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 26.2195.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 14.9034 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 23.3239.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
The next resistance price is 29.57.

COEUR D'ALENE
Weekly
The current traders' position is Neutral.
Traders' are out
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 16.8434 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 3.7914.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 15.5706 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 3.8332.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
.

DRDGOLD ADR
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 1.33
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 22.7713 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 1.1566.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 7.1158 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 1.3257.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 1.53

ELDORADO GOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 3.28
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 29.1984 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 3.0573.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 38.8523 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 2.8447.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price 4.27

FREEPORT MCMORAN STK B
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 49.54
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 20.4847 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 42.6361.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 34.6105 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 38.1620.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
The next resistance price is 56.07.

GLAMIS GOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 21.06
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 15.5318 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 19.1549.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 28.6352 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 17.2037.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
The next resistance price is 24.28.

GOLD BUGS NDX
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 228.14
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 14.0656 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 214.7975.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 17.9327 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 207.7540.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price 259.07.

GOLD FIELDS ADR
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 15.18
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 27.5870 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 12.1407.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 28.9444 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 12.0129.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 16.77.

GOLDCORP
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 19.10
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 14.0138 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 17.7698.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 39.8160 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 14.4905.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
The next resistance price 20.69.

GOLDEN STAR
Weekly
The current traders' position is Neutral.
Traders' are currently out.
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 23.3401 percent to the resistance price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend resistance price is 3.0655.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 33.5418 percent to the resistance price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend resistance price is 3.5361.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
.

HARMONY GOLD MNG ADR
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 11.91
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 38.3521 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 9.0927.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 36.3914 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 9.2235.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 13.40.

HECLA MINING
Weekly
The current traders' position is Neutral.
Traders are out
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 18.3475 percent to the resistance price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend resistance price is 4.0048.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 39.2111 percent to the resistance price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend resistance price is 5.3793.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
Traders are currently out.

IAMGOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 7.02
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 5.9076 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 7.0155.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 9.1171 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 6.8092.
The internal strength indicator is trending up
The next resistance price is 8.07

KINROSS GOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 6.60
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 13.3411 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 6.5995.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 16.2396 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 6.4350.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
The next resistance price is 7.98.

MERIDIAN GOLD
Weekly
The current traders' position is short.
Traders' stop loss price is 19.38
The Current trend is bearish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 0.1934 percent to the resistance price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend resistance price is 19.3775.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 10.9303 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 17.4344.
The internal strength indicator is trending down.
The next support price is 17.43.

NEWMONT MINING
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 41.48
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 11.6883 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 41.4815.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 9.6255 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 42.2621.
The internal strength indicator is trending up
The next resistance price is 46.89.

PAN AMERICAN SILVER
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 16.08
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 12.7850 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 16.0837.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 16.0275 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 15.6342.
The internal strength indicator is trending up
The next resistance price is 18.87

PLACER DOME
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 19.84
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 33.2426 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 15.8433.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending down.
Today's closing price is 23.7611 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 17.0571.
The internal strength indicator is trending up
The next resistance price is 21.93.

RANDGOLD RES ADR
Weekly
The current traders' position is long.
Traders' stop loss price is 14.26
The Current trend is bullish.
The Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 10.3997 percent to the support price of Alpha Trend.
The Alpha Trend Support price is 14.2573.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up.
Today's closing price is 30.4930 percent to the support price of the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend.
The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend Support price is 12.0620.
The internal strength indicator is trending up.
Next resistance price is 16.87.

19 November, 2005
Erich K. Soltes

email: erich@alphatrendanalysis.com
Alpha Trend Analysis

About Erich Soltes

A graduate of Brookfield High School in Brookfield CT and an Eagle Scout, Erich went on to graduate from SUNY Maritime College in New York City in 1988, with a BS in Marine Transportation and a minor in Economics. For the next ten years he was a Navel Reserve officer and a Merchant Marine officer. In 1998 he went to work on Wall Street obtaining his series 7, 63 and 65 licenses. He worked both as a stockbroker and a financial planner helping clients obtain their financial goals. In 2004 he was able to finally reach his goal of developing a mathematical trading model that could beat the "buy and hold" method of investing. In mid 2005 the Alpha Trend Analysis website was created.

For more information on the Alpha Trend System and the daily newsletter please go to alphatrendanalysis.com.

DISCLOSURE: Erich K. Soltes is the Owner of Alpha Trend Analysis, which contains the opinions of E. K. Soltes, and is provided for informational purposes only. Neither Erich Soltes nor Alpha Trend Analysis, provide individual investment advice and will not advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, or value of any particular stock or investment strategy. To the extent that any of the information contained in this article may be deemed investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Past results of Alpha Trend Analysis, or E. K. Soltes are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Erich Soltes, entities that he controls, family, and associates, may have positions in securities mentioned in this article and may close them at any time.

Alpha Trend Analysis does not represent the accuracy, nor does it warranty the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the statements made on its web site or in its email alerts. The information provided should therefore be used as a basis for continued, independent research into a security referenced in this article so that the Subscriber forms his or her own opinion regarding any investment in a security mentioned in it. The Subscriber therefore agrees that he or she alone bears complete responsibility for his or her own investment research and decisions. We are not and do not represent ourselves to be a registered investment adviser, or advisory firm or company. You should consult a qualified financial advisor or broker before making any investment decision and to help you evaluate any information you may receive from this article.

Consequently, the Subscriber understands and agrees that by using any of Alpha Trend Analysis services, either directly or indirectly, Alpha Trend Analysis shall not be liable to anyone for any loss, injury or damage resulting from the use of, or information attained from Alpha Trend Analysis or any of its services.

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