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Gold In 2011: Short & Long Term Analysis
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Dec 31, 2010
Gold and Precious Metals
UUP Dollar Chart
US Dollar Analysis:
The Federal Reserve, with the absence of a Gold Standard, is the worst financial system devised by mankind, or should I say, monster-kind. There has never been an audit of the monster, and there is no safety mechanism to limit how much your Fed can print.
SGOL 6 Month Price Chart
Gold Bullion Analysis:
Note the solid volume-based support on the above SGOL chart. Volume is the single most important technical indicator, and the most ignored indicator because it isn’t flashy. I would ask you to consider that profits are flashy, not squiggly lines on a chart. Get “intense” when looking at volume, if you want intense profits.
Longer term, the policies of the government in the US are starving the economy, failing in job creation, and feeding inflation. The “Shovel Ready” jobs are nothing more than Black Hole spending from 2008 forward.
Consider the inflationary Black Hole projects; spend 10,000 dollars to create 3000 dollars of economic activity. I own a manufacturing company. I don’t pay 10,000 dollars to get 3,000 dollars. I wonder how eager the US Congress would be to spend 3 dollars to get 1, if it was their personal funds that had to be spent?
SGOL 14 Month Price Chart
I will continue to shave profits off as the market moves higher and will start the SuperForce power 2 re-buys on weakness, meaning I rebuy every 2% down, because 1260 is only the ultimate possible target, not a guarantee.
Gold Juniors GDXJ Chart
Gold Juniors Analysis:
GDX 6 Month Chart
On the above chart, I have laid out the likeliest outcome for the coming year. GDX is going to $72 at a minimum! The entire precious metals sector has performed superbly in the past few weeks. There is a strong chance GDX enters a correction in January that bottoms around $57, then starts a huge climb to $72.
GDX Massive Breakout On 3 Year Chart
Use my SFS Gold Stock Ratio to get an idea where the gold stocks group is headed over the next few years.
SuperForce Gold Stock Ratios: Example: Gold, from 1387, moves up 10%. That’s a move to $1525.
GDX Current 65% Momentum Ratio to Gold: If Gold moves up 10%, GDX moves up 16.5%.
GDXJ 239% Momentum Ratio to Gold: If Gold moves up 10% GDXJ moves up 33.9%!
Super Force Arb Ratios
Because the structure of the triple leveraged ETFs is different from a trust or closed-end fund, enormous inefficiencies can develop as these funds attempt, unsuccessfully, to fully track the underlying commodity or market.
Over time, most investors in the gold community have become bitter about their experiences with such funds (ETFs) that fail to track the underlying items. As a long time manufacturer, I naturally lean towards the understanding that where there is large inefficiency, there is large profit to be made. The Arb Ratio Tables I have developed show the inefficiency can spiral into hundreds of percent over 12 to 24 months. My trading program seeks to build core positions in this very inefficiency for investors, and the gains here are already producing percentage returns that rival and even surpass my manufacturing business, so I am delegating there, and expanding here with the Arb Ratio Trading, which is really a mechanism to profit as the banks profit, by selling that inefficiency to unsuspecting investors! I’m preparing a series of educational videos detailing how to profit from these inefficiencies. Email me for details. Best Wishes to the entire Gold Community for 2011!
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Dec 31, 2010