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Gold's Technicals: Volume! Volume!! Volume!!!
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Dec 3, 2010
Gold and Precious Metals
Gold Bullion. 6 Month Price Chart.
Super Force Gold Bullion Analysis:
Gold has a solid Super Force Buy Signal as of Friday Nov. 12th and has moved much higher for you since I issued my key buy.
Gold is proving more and more to be the most valued asset. Although some people are figuring it out, I believe Gold is still undervalued, and the fact is that only about 2% of investors own any gold!
The physical gold that exists compared to the enormous amount of debt is tiny. Remember that value and valuation can differ from market price for a long time, but eventually the debt monster meets its gold maker.
Consider the long term debt and liabilities such as Medicare and Social Security, just in America! The picture is 130 trillion dollars of debt horrors over the next thirty years, and maybe sooner, a lot sooner, if paper money fails.
The known amount of gold in the world is approximately 13-14 trillion by my own accounting and possibly quite a bit less. Now look at the debt and liability I mentioned above. This is not the world’s debt; this is just America’s debt!
Gold will likely be dramatically higher in the next many years. One thing that continues to baffle me is the lack of interest and knowledge of Gold on Wall Street. All you have to do is turn on CNBC or Bloomberg and will notice the following:
The majority of financial advisers who manage individual’s accounts are actually advising clients away from Gold and not to it. Widow and orphan money is still being ushered into bonds, for perceived safety!
In my opinion, Bonds and Currencies have a terrible future.
When you consider the limited amount of Gold and Silver in the system and the oversupply of debt and government spending, I don’t know how you could miss the necessity to own gold. My advice continues to be, get yourself the gold you need, gold using my buy program, before it goes dramatically higher.
Those who are light on gold should be more aggressive to get what they need in their asset base. My Surge Index System is the ideal way to get your Gold purchased. Get the job done and have fun doing it! I firmly believe a minimum of 30% of one’s assets should be in this sector.
This is not an exclusively American story. It is a worldwide crisis. So my Gold positions are larger today than they were a year ago. I have bought more Gold on all meaningful pullbacks. I’ve bought in the last weeks into the mini-hit, as I have outlined to you, and urged you to do the same.
After a solid week of profit taking in my SF60 Trading Service, I’m looking to see you reload trading positions on the next weakness. When is that weakness coming and how big is it?
Well, a key point to remember is the recent strength in the dollar.
I see only another day or so of dollar weakness, followed by resumption in dollar strength. My intermediate estimation is for an approximately three month rally in the dollar through January.
I have just completed an extensive look at the currencies. Subscribers can find those updates at superforcesignals.com in the Currencies section as well as by viewing my latest SFS Currencies video. These reports are helpful in understanding the importance of the dollar in relation to precious metals and other assets as well.
A good example of the dollar analysis that I follow has been the volume patterns. Strong volume has been occurring on up days. Volume moves with the trend, that is a technical rule. Then you saw the pullback on Wednesday and amateurs got wildly excited about gold again. Price on the dollar did get hit, yet volume was lower. That is dollar-bullish, bottom line.
I am ready for resumed pressure on my favourite sectors. The metals. Gold and commodities after the last many days will likely go back into a corrective mode. When this happens, you must buy. If we go higher and I’m “wrong”, well, my largest position is gold, not dollars. That should be yours too. The golden key is to be prepared for any and all outcomes. The main point is to make money, and that is what I do for you. Longer term the dollar is in serious trouble, but the unwinding of a skyhigh 97% dollar bears statistic, is what has fuelled the initial rally in the USD.
Gold Bullion. One Year Price Chart:
Look at the box A on the above chart when you open the link. My work shows the power volume has been to the downside.
I have included a longer term daily chart. This particular chart was key in my ability to successfully identify the previous 1425 peak exactly.
We are in a position where, fundamentally, there is no better investment on the globe than Gold. At the same time, there are warning signs that are growing, partly in the area of volume. Keep one thing in mind: price can defy volume, for quite a while. Ultimately, price rules volume and unfortunately you must face that fact with gold.
Gold Juniors – GDXJ Chart.
Super Force Gold Juniors Analysis.
I issued a Buy Signal on GDXJ on Friday Nov.12 at $38.74. That followed my sell at $42.18 just 3 days earlier.
The juniors continue to be leaders in the Gold Sector. That is very bullish, short and long term. The actions in this sector actually prove the point that I was making in the Gold commentary. When you see Gold Stocks lead, that’s Bullish, but to see the juniors lead is ultra bullish!
Note the price is now approaching resistance. Again, volume is a concern in all precious metal sectors. While I say concern; I actually want a pullback at this point, for core positions and the continuous reload opportunities I highlight for you in my www.superforce60.com 60 minute chart trading service.
The week offered up more profit taking on the 60 minute charts. Gold juniors are one of the heaviest traded sectors in my SF60 portfolio. They offer great volatility. I booked profits on five GDXJ positions Tuesday and Thursday alone, and sent the same signals to a number of you in the gold community for free, my gift to you.
1) I have successfully traded GDX and GDXJ in these markets. Each time lowering my average share cost basis, and enlarging my core. Trading the 60 minute charts has seen those following me enlarge your core gold positions by 30% since early summer while taking your trading accounts to new highs.
2) Trade something you have confidence in. You have confidence in gold! I don’t trade to lose. My rule is to books wins not losses! If that is your philosophy on trading then you want to trade items that have the highest probably on going higher over the short and long term. That is not price chasing, that is buying well and selling better!
GDX- 9 Month Chart
GDX. Massive Breakout On 3 Year Chart:
Super Force Gold Stocks Analysis:
A Super Force Buy Signal was issued on GDX at $59.61.
Everything I have said to support buying gold should be doubled here and now on gold stocks. These Senior Stocks are an absolute gift, because of the 2008 melt down. The only investment I have that is larger than Sr. Gold Stocks is Gold itself.
To me the most important fact to get right now is how far the Gold Stocks are behind Gold itself. GDX is trailing Gold by over 40% since late 2008! Gold is up substantially and a look at the above shows zero progress for GDX. That’s going to change, bigtime, and I want you in place to take advantage of that positive change.
There is not enough gold! The only way to get more is to mine it!
Bottom line: There are signs the correction will resume. At the same time note all the positives I highlight to you today. Couple that with the special undervalued situation surrounding the Gold Seniors. Gold Stocks look to be headed way higher!
Silver. I issued a buy alert at to you at $25.71 and bought myself in addition to trading positions, at the $25 mark. The big picture fundamental story couldn’t be more bullish for silver than it is, but silver is known for volatility. That could change. One thing that might be different this time is the level of distrust that is forming all over the globe, and growing. Money printing is nothing more than a bad habit of corrupt government.
After this chapter in world history is written, people may not be in such a big hurry to exchange the physical silver for cash.
Silver is an asset that I hold a large core position in, and one likely going much higher in the long term. I added to positions of physical silver locked in at the spot price of 25.00 the low, so far.
A look at the silver chart identifies the key buying zone. The silver market rallied 68% from July to its peak, this month.
The Key zone would be the 50% retracement of that move. I don’t know if we’ll get back there or not. I want to be prepared for such an event.
What is of more importance, particularly for those who don’t have any allocation of silver at all, is to be on the buy on any further weakness.
The fundamentals are very bullish for silver, so it will be time to begin buying on price weakness if, and when, it comes.
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Proprietary SURGE index SIGNALS:
Index Buy or 25 Surge Index Sell: Solid Power.
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100 Surge Index Buy or 100 Surge Index Sell: "Over The Top"
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Dec 3, 2010