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Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Oct 25, 2010
Gold and Precious Metals
KEY CHART #1: GOLD via SGOL-NYSE
Buy and Sell recommendations should be added at the recommended price.The Surge Index System Buys Weakness and Sells Strength
Super Force Gold Bullion Analysis:
- Gold has a Surge Index 100 Sell Signal as of Oct. 1st. This is the maximum Surge Sell Signal.
- I am a Long Term Bull as it relates to GOLD. I bought more physical bullion when many were predicting much lower prices and better entry levels back in July. I bought and I’m not selling my physical gold. Longer term, I’m convinced Gold and Silver will be much higher.
- Week in Review: I said last week as it relates to Weekly RSI analysis:
- What I would like to focus on is RSI analysis. High RSI is like overhead weight on price, especially on the weekly chart. Notice the area which RSI is at now. In the past, in this Bull Market, this reading has brought price down.
- This analysis is found in Chart #2. As you can see, a correction is now underway in Gold. There are reasons to expect lower prices in the days ahead.
- Chart #1 Analysis: MACD has now rolled over and is heading lower. Volume is much more intense on down days and an overhead GAP unfolded Tuesday Oct. 19th. With the intensity of the volume on down days, I do not expect the GAP to get filled until the correction is complete.
- A good example was Fridays action, price popped after Thursday’s drubbing. Yet the action was on half the volume. This continues to point to corrective action.
- After taking profits on the way up, I am using a POWER 2 REBUY for Gold and Gold Senior Stocks. I employed that action again this week. This is an automatic re buy program, 2% under the sell.
- Lastly, one more down day in the precious metals sector will likely give fresh Surge Index Buy Signals. That is when I will begin to put new money to work in this sector!!!
KEY CHART #2: GOLD - Weekly
KEY CHART #3: GOLD JUNIORS via GDXJ-NYSE
Super Force Gold JUNIORS Analysis:
- There is currently a Surge Index 100 Sell Signal on GDXJ as of Sept 8th.
- My strategy has been to sell strength and to buy weakness; I set my orders to re buy 3% from the sell price on GDXJ. This strategy is the POWER 3 REBUY program.
- As stated in the Gold commentary, there are warnings. I have been highlighting them for several weeks.
- Chart #3 Analysis: Note that distribution days are adding up. This is a warning that those who have owned the shares longer term are releasing their shares to those chasing price. That is exactly what is now driving volume higher on down days. Price Chasers panic because they bought too much on price strength.
- A look back at commentary I made last week:
- I would say Friday’s (Oct 15) decline shows the highs will likely be tested sooner rather than later. Topping in a sector is generally a process and not an event.
- Note the action Monday morning did that, and then the correction began in earnest. This looked likely to me because that Friday prices fell on soft volume, indicating a short term bounce in price. That is exactly what happened.
- As mentioned above, there is a Surge 100 Sell on GDXJ. Although there is a sell, I hold a core position of approximately 50%. When weakness occurs, I will enlarge my core position and trading position.
KEY CHART #4: GOLD STOCKS via GDX-NYSE
Super Force Gold Stocks Analysis:
- A new Surge Index 25 Buy Signal was issued Oct 19th.
- I said a week ago relating to the timing of new buys:
This has been a powerful rally. New money should ideally wait for a fresh Surge Index Buy Signal. Now is not the time to blindly buy.
- Chart 4 Analysis: We finally got enough weakness to register a buy signal. This is a signal to start buys. When buy programs are issued one must prepare for lower prices. I have officially started putting money to work here, but I am also preparing for lower prices. As written earlier in this report, there are signs that point to the likelihood of lower prices. Prepare for that now!
- Chart 5 Analysis: I have included another GDX chart (#5), where I have placed price targets. The first of which was acquired this week. The sensible strategy is to buy incrementally as price goes lower and the Surge Index gives stronger buys.
- I am extremely BULLISH on the Gold Sector. I have already started to enlarge my core positions.
KEY CHART #5: GOLD STOCKS via GDX-NYSE
KEY CHART #6: SILVER via SIVR-NYSE
- There is a Surge Index100 Sell Signal as of Sept 7th for SILVER. This is the Max Sell Signal on Silver.
- Chart 6 Analysis Volume is telling trading on Thursday Oct 14th was very strong in price and volume. One thing I begin to watch as rallies mature is excessive volume. This looks like it qualifies as excessive volume. This was also the day the top was achieved.
- Again, this is an asset that I hold a large core position in and one likely going much higher in the long term.
- In the shorter term Silver is seriously overbought. Use a proven winning strategy in this volatile metal! Thanks!
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Proprietary SURGE index SIGNALS:
Index Buy or 25 Surge Index Sell: Solid Power.
50 Surge Index Buy or 50 Surge Index Sell: Stronger Power.
75 Surge Index Buy or 75 Surge Index Sell: Maximum Power.
100 Surge Index Buy or 100 Surge Index Sell: "Over The Top"
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Oct 25, 2010