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Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Sep 14, 2012
US Dollar Blown Shoulder Chart
- I said a week ago: “If the dollar doesn’t bounce, the move lower could become violent, and a panic into the metals could occur.”
- The dollar has declined violently, and the metals are rocketing higher. My technical work points to a much lower dollar, in the coming months.
- In the shorter term, the likely outcome will be another 2-3 weeks of “price digestion”, followed by a resumption of the powerful down trend.
- The dollar began forming a head & shoulders top pattern in June, but it was too weak to form much of a right shoulder. Instead, an ominous series of bearish triangles appeared, and the dollar entered a vicious downtrend.
- I have been looking for a fundamental event to usher in a major new bear leg in the dollar, and the announcement of QE3 yesterday is just what the doctor ordered.
- My short term target of 78.50 has almost been acquired. Avoid the dollar.
Gold Big Targets Chart
- The daily chart is now a little bit overbought, but it can stay that way, for months. The gold sector has probably put in a major bottom, so very light profit taking is all that is required right now.
- The monthly and weekly chart indicators are beginning to move up from deeply oversold conditions. It is not a good time to be a top caller.
- The full stokes (Stochastics) indicator is moving out of the oversold area. I consider this to be a major buy signal.
- In the big picture, my analysis suggests that the price targets of $1850 in 2012, $2300 in 2013, and $4500 in 2015, will all be acquired.
Gold Summer Breakout Chart
- This weekly chart suggests that gold will consolidate for a few weeks, and then rise to my $1850 target price, by November or earlier.
- The MACD rise seems to be just getting started, and it could run higher for many months.
- Note the Ultimate oscillator, at the top of the chart. It indicates that this move higher is nearly completed. I’m projecting that gold will now tread water for 2-3 weeks, and then quickly rise to $1850.
GDX Route 66 Chart
- My technical analysis suggests that gold stocks, like bullion, seem nearly ready to enter a quiet period, just as traders begin to get excited. I expect a few weeks of price consolidation now.
- My $52 target was acquired yesterday, and there is “technical room” for a further push towards $54-$56.
- My January 2013 target is $66, and possibly higher. This number is based around my $1850 target for gold. If gold moves higher than $1850, look for GDX to rise to $72, in the same timeframe.
- If you are heavily invested in gold stocks, you may be starting to get your kicks, on route 66!
GDX 60 Minute Channel Chart
- GDX should begin to trade surprisingly quietly, for the next few weeks.
- The rise to my $52 target price yesterday created an overbought condition on some short term indicators. Note the spike on the CCI indicator that I highlighted with a red circle.
- While GDX is now a little overbought, yesterday’s price action also took it above the price channel, and that can cause momentum-based hedge funds to buy aggressively.
- It’s possible that GDX could run right to $54-$56 before any meaningful correction occurs. Gold stock accumulators should be ready to buy in the $47.50 area.
GDXJ Tag & Bag Chart
- In the shorter term I continue to look for a move higher in the next few sessions. That should carry GDXJ to $25-$27. Once this target area is “tagged and bagged”, I expect several weeks of corrective action.
- Please note the RSI indicator at the top of the chart. It is difficult to see, but a tiny non-confirmation has just occurred. GDXJ could easily rise 10-15% higher, before this technical event has any bearing on the price action.
Silver Fib Action Chart
- On this weekly chart you will notice that silver is trading at about $34. This is a key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, from the previous bull move.
- Although this price may prove to be somewhat of a challenge, the set-up of the key MACD indicator suggests this resistance should soon be cleared aside. Rather than a “big correction”, I’m predicting modest consolidation, for a few weeks.
- From there, I expect a powerful move, to about $45. The painful period of accumulation seems to be over, and a rise above $34 should usher in a period of great happiness, for silver investors!
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Sep 14, 2012