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Global Markets Crash Warning

Morris Hubbartt
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Jun 14, 2013

Dow Danger Chart

  • Most global stock markets are struggling. Major tops take time to form, and the rollover can be subtle.
  • The US market has held up quite well, until April. Now, heavy distribution volume is making an appearance.
  • Note the MACD indicator. That is showing a continuous breakdown, and setting the stage for deeper declines.

Japan Stock Market Crash Chart

  • Japan’s stock market looks like a pint-sized towering inferno.
  • Horrifically, the crash has helped build a massive head & shoulders top pattern.
  • The target on this index chart is the 100 level. If it is hit, Japanese investors would be crushed, and I believe some of them would turn to gold!

TLT (T-Bond Proxy) Major Top Chart

  • Most technical indicators have been warning that something is wrong with the T-bond.  
  • In particular, MACD could be termed a technical “train wreck”.
  • Bonds have rallied strongly, for 30 years. Quantitative easing has forced yields lower and lower. From here, even a modest decline in bond prices could cause a panic in global markets.
  • The US bond market has formed a substantial head & shoulders top on the weekly chart, and recently broke the neckline.

US Dollar Rounding Top Chart

  • When the bond market goes down, yields go higher. That usually supports the underlying currency.
  • The dollar is now falling while rates are rising. The appearance of this rounding top pattern is disturbing chart action, and suggests there is a growing loss of confidence in American fiat currency.

Gold Triangle Chart

  • Gold has been a little disappointing in the last week, but a short-covering rally could quickly take gold up towards $1580. 
  • From there, a fall to new lows in the $1250 area can’t be ruled out, unfortunately.
  • Volume will be the key in interpreting the gold market in the coming weeks.
  • Patience is required. The triangle formation suggests that gold is either headed towards $1580, or down to $1200. Let’s cheer for the bulls!

GDX Sentiment Extremes Chart

  • Gold stocks are hated by most investors, which is an opportunity for the long-term investors with patience.
  • When investor sentiment is radically lopsided, prices can quickly move in the opposite direction, and in this case that would be to the upside.
  • This chart highlights my sentiment indicator. In 2008, prices kept falling, even though sentiment reached extreme levels. Regardless, the entire $25-$40 area seems to represent good value for sentiment players.

GDX Moment Of Truth Chart

  • An inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern is in play. The right shoulder is almost complete. That’s bullish, but I want to see a two day close above $32, before getting too excited.
  • The upside target is $37. Volume patterns are more constructive for gold stocks than for bullion. Gold stocks could lead the metals higher, which would be a welcome change!

GDXJ Trend Line Action Chart

  • My next target price for GDXJ is $16.
  • The formation of the right shoulder of the inverse h&s bottom is good news, but the price is back down below a key trend line, which is a little disturbing.
  • Junior gold stock investing is not for the faint of heart, and all investors can do is hope that the juniors follow the senior stocks up the chart!

Silver Chart

  • From a technical stand point, MACD is acting like it wants to turn higher. 
  • When silver was peaking two years ago, almost nobody wanted to sell the white metal. Today, there are few buyers.
  • I added physical positions this week, in my $19-$23 buy zone. Although I own more gold than silver, I think silver may surprise investors, by holding the recent lows, while gold breaks them.

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Jun 14, 2013
Morris Hubbartt

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