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China Teeters & Gold Pushes Higher
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Jun 7, 2013
China FXI (Stock Market Proxy ETF) Chart
- China overtook America in 2010, and became the world’s largest manufacturing nation. This Chinese stock market chart could be called a thermometer of the health of global manufacturing.
- There is a head and shoulders top in play, which could be foreshadowing a global recession. While nothing is confirmed unless the neckline breaks (at about $34), investors should keep a close eye on it.
- A recession could prompt more monetary stimulus, and boost gold prices.
Dow Topping Process Chart
- It’s possible that the top pattern in place on the Chinese stock market is a leading indicator of what is coming to America. Note the enormous distribution volume occurring on this chart.
- In the short term, the slow Stokes and CCI suggest that the Dow could rally a bit, but I think that if the 50 day moving average breaks, a decline down to 14,400 is likely.
- From there, I’m projecting a rally to about 15,000, followed by a bigger drop to the 13,800 area.
Gold Channel Chart
- This weekly chart shows gold trading in a channel, and it is extremely oversold. Note the position of the RSI oscillator, at the top of the chart. It’s now in a rising trend above 30, after reaching the lowest point in the history of this chart.
- Even if the current rally failed, there’s good support between $1227 -$1260. I’ve highlighted that with a thick blue line.
- The position of the oscillators suggests that gold could rally to the red channel line, which currently sits at about $1580.
Gold Summer Rally Chart
- The road to $1580, if it happens at all, may not be a smooth ride. There is strong Fibonacci resistance at about $1503.
- I want to see two consecutive closes above $1421.60 before I’ll be confident that gold can get to $1503.
- The good news is that MACD and RSI indicators are both predicting higher prices.
- The low volume demonstrates a lack of confidence in any such rally, but this chart doesn’t show any of the substantial physical gold buying taking place in Asia.
GDX Power Volume Chart
- The bullish gap that occurred on strong volume about a week ago has not been filled, but GDX is struggling to trade above $30.50.
- Over the past two weeks, there has been good volume in the senior and intermediate gold stocks, and consistent rallies into the close. It’s always a positive to see closing numbers well off the lows for the day, creating long-tailed candlesticks on the chart.
- Obviously, I’d prefer to see gold stocks rally every day (!), but that’s not realistic. A pullback to the $28 area would fill the gap, and set up an inverse h & s bottom formation.
GDX Short Term Chart
- The short term technical picture is also improving. Note the inverse head and shoulders formation on this 60 minute chart. There’s also an irregular cup & handle pattern.
- This chart also clearly shows the price is hesitating in the $30.50 area.
- An upside breakout would occur at about $30.75, with a target of $35- $36.
GDXJ Trendline Breakout Chart
- Over the past week, the downchannel has been convincingly taken out, on pretty good volume.
- Volume has decreased over the past few days, while GDXJ has just drifted sideways, and that’s technically bullish.
- A summer rally could see GDXJ rise to about $16.
Silver COT Report Chart
- Based on this sentimentrader.com chart, commercial traders are now about as bullish as they were way back in the year 2001.
- The public is extremely bearish, and so are hedge funds.
- Silver is much more volatile than gold, so investors need to be comfortable with large drawdowns. I wouldn’t waste much time trying to call the exact bottom. I like buying modest amounts of silver on $5 drops, and storing it outside the banking system!
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Jun 7, 2013