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Gold: The $1260 to $1500 RoadMap
Weekly Market Update Excerpt
posted Jan 7, 2011
Gold and Precious Metals
UUP Dollar Chart
US Dollar Analysis:
Wait till you look at my charts this week; you will see the theme for Gold is, “first a little pain, and then a giant gain!”.
The Dollar rally is volume-anaemic, and I expect my predicted move higher in the short-intermediate term to play out almost exactly as I projected to you. Look at my projected move down for the dollar as the rally dies!
Of serious concern for the dollar is the 8 plus trillion dollar market cap in outstanding US treasuries. That massive market cap is accompanied by a never-ending supply of new Government issued debt. If you take inventory of the outstanding liabilities, the numbers are staggering. The US National debt just hit $14 trillion.
I believe the biggest statistical nightmare, from a fundamental perspective, is the $112 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Think about that term, “unfunded”. That is double-speak for debt. That debt is real and it is owed.
- Thomas Jefferson, remember him? Well, he warned of the immense damage that would occur if the people assigned control of the money supply to the banking sector. "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies”.
Where are your liberties? Ask the banks. Your liberties are in their deepest vaults. What do you have in return? Paper money that might be going to zero. Was the trade worth it?
SGOL 6 Month Price Chart
Gold Bullion Analysis:
I have to wonder how well investors will handle a decline to 1260. It has been a year or so since we have seen a nasty Gold decline. Bull Markets convince people they can never go down, and then… look out below! Can you handle it, are you buying?
The fundamental Story for higher Gold couldn’t be any better than it is. Yet, corrections need to come to supply the Bull Markets. Policy Elites with no business experience initiate Stupid Math Economics, which supposes that Consumption equals prosperity. In reality, this action creates inflation and a weaker dollar, producing nothing but a higher cost of living and a lower standard of living! At the same time, the price of Gold and all other commodities increases dramatically.
SGOL 14 Month Price Chart
The most notable action of the week was somewhat higher volume on lower prices indicating further weakness is likely. That is the story in the short term, yet the longer term volume has declined since the corrective action started in November.
Short term: Mild Pain. Long term: Giant Gain!
Corrections in Bull Markets can be violent and downright frightening. Peter Lynch was possibly the greatest mutual fund manger of our lifetimes. He managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund with a return of approximately 29% annually. Yet only 30% of his shareholders ever made money! How can that be? It was because…
They sold out when price came down!
Gold Juniors GDXJ Chart
Gold Juniors Analysis:
My Superforce Analysis was extremely accurate over the last week. I believe in the short term prices will continue to decline. In the very shortest term, I expect a pause in the decline, but it is not over.
My short term GDXJ target since the November time line has been $34. As some of you get to know me, you’ll see I don’t waffle on my stated predictions or “re-evaluate” very often.
Once the correction ends, my one year target is: $75. There is a high danger to investors that the correction ends suddenly and leaves them behind as price rockets higher with tremendous volatility.
GDX 6 Month Chart
GDX Massive Breakout On 3 Year Chart
The most undervalued story on all of Wall Street is GDX, in my opinion, and for the most part, the crowd is totally missing it. Stocks got whacked hard in 2008 including GDX; since then Gold has made one new high after another. I believe gold stocks are assuming the leadership position. Many times leadership rotates in corrections. GDX is a fantastic long term buy and will be up dramatically from here.
Silver 5 month Chart
Work continues on my unique ARB TRADER program to mimic what the banks do with the triple leveraged ETFs to milk investors, and a January 14th hoped-for launch is on schedule. The inefficiencies in the structure of the ETFs can be exploited and Peter Lynch style profits booked while acting more as a bookie than a gambler in the market!
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Jan 7, 2011