Gold Charts R Us
We're
poised for the starter's gun to go off
Harry Schultz snippet
Archives
March 14, 2005
 The
following snippet is an excerpt from Harry Schultz' current GCRU,
dated Mar 9, 2005. Gold Charts R Us - sent weekly by Email
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Welcome to GCRU #152 on March 9, 2005.
Bullion has moved sideways since lastime we talked. It's $4 higher than a week ago as I start
to write. But between then&now, gold retested the very critical
431.50 support zone (basis April futures) which is also the neckline
of a base pattern (a reverse H&Sin the gold indexes though
not so clearly in bullion).
Lots of nice patterns: silver in a tentative rise above a bullish
down-flag. Copper a rebuy on sustained rise above 150 resistance.
Reverse H&S base patterns in the 3 gold indexes: SGI, HUI,
XAU plus NEM - which is a bellwether gold stk. Many breakout
moves took place in consolidation mode above new support, a la
AEM, AAUK, NG, S-T, VYE-T, YRI-T, CNI-T, DSM-T, EPL-T. (in case
some of U don't know, the T after the symbol stands
for Toronto, where most golds trade, far more than London,
Jo-burg, Vancouver, Sydney, Zurich, NY). A large number
of key gold shares seem to be positioned at the starting gate.
Something can always go wrong (eg, US$ upjab) but as of now,
we're poised for the starter's gun to go off---for major positioning.
Meantime, continue buying moderately as indiv charts justify
it.
Inverted H&Sbase formations are also apparent in the euro
& Swiss fr. The C$ is inching toward a breakout of poss bullish
downwedge. Gamblers can pre-empt buy. I'm
a gambler on Mon/Wed/Fri, a conservative on Tues & Thurs.
The yen looks weak. Mini upticks
in US$ are unimpressive, only managed to fill a recent gap. But,
I'll feel safer, more comfortable, when
US$ breaks under 82 on $index chart. That will confirm the next
major gold buy signal. As I look at a 120min tick chart of gold,
I see a 3month downwedge (bullish, tgt 460). Then I see a breakout
from that wedge, then a gap up after the B.O., then a tiny pullback
which exactly closes the gap. Then I see a rise after that gap
closure. Now I see 440 as the temporary barrier. It seems to
project a move to 450 when 440 is broken thru. Later to 455.
Still later: 462-463. That takes us from Alpha to Omega, medium
term. If we get to 462, we'll no
doubt see a new potential road map. As long as gold holds over
430-432, it's safe to go for a swim. Below 430,
we would have to be on the lookout for Jaws 
Meridian needs close monitoring as pullback action is weaker
than most.
The A$ is still holding at its highs.
The NZ$ is making new multi-decade highs almost daily. But don't buy any; U might make money & U wouldn't want to do that, would U? Stay with the US$
& the euro & make little or no money.
My friend Chic Goslin, author & daily commodity on-line advisor
[chickgos@adnc.com]
is a great definer. He's good
at putting in words what I know but sometimes can't find a clever way to say. Yesterday Chic said:
"In this game it is essential
that each trader know himself & how he will react to different
situations. If U tend to be unable to ride through inevitable
counter-trend reactions then U just have to take profits when
both price & SL are at recent extremes. If U have trouble
getting out & then soon after getting back in (sometimes
at worse price) then U have to accept riding through inevitable
counter-trend moves. In this game U will always experience
some kind of "pain." U have to decide if U prefer the
pain of getting out too soon & thus leaving money on table
(for others) or the pain of riding through inevitable counter
trend moves & possibly giving back all profits but keeping
chance of making more. Have found that many individual traders
seem to have very difficult time taking profits when all signs
are good, which is when both price & SL will be on recent
extremes, & then tend to panic out on inevitable counter
trend move & this is a bad combination. So, first know
yourself & then adjust how U approach trading accordingly.
Eg, current dips in grains & cotton "should" be
temporary & any stability of price next day or so should
set up buying opportunity, but nothing for sure in this game
& especially when weather involved. Had plenty of signs to
take some or all profits in these past few days, but if did so,
ran the risk of leaving money on table & this is the trade
off U have to make if want to be successful short term trader
in such positions. Personally have always done better when take
profits at what seems like "too soon," but some do
better sticking with trend through thick & thin & if
have big equity & personality to do this will do well, but
have to be able to take these counter trend moves & when
do run risk of every once in while giving back all profits &
perhaps into loss. So observe your trading behavior & then
approach trading in way that gives you best chance of ultimate
success, & realize either way (trade or suffer through) will
have to experience "pain" about decisions. U can't avoid some pain."
Thanks, Chic.
In my many decades of playing mkts, long & shorterm, I found
the pain of taking profits too soon is trivial compared to the
pain of losing them &/or sweating through tortuous corrections--&
often selling out when the pain got too great to be 'prudent'
to hold. Odds favor frequent profitaking to avoid frequent losstaking.
That sounds obvious & it is, but some smart people
don't get it. By the way, I notice the more distant months
in gold are almost daily showing bigger gains than the spot month.
This is usually a sign the mkt is bullish (& vice versa of
course). As I write, the currencies are now giving go-signals
for gold. The euro is trying a breakout, up. And the gold indexes
(eg, HUI) are up strongly. I think we have liftoff. See PS. Timely
here to use a quote from the supertraderalmanac.com: "U
never get a license to trade, only a lifetime 'learner' permit."
So much for that. Meet me in
the P.S. for mark-to-market comments at press time. The outlook
is getting better by the minute. US$ just broke support.
Be gold-happy.
Uncle Harry
The following
indexes, mkts & gold stocks are reviewed this week in the
full edition of GCRU:
Agnico (NYSE & Tor)
Amcol Int'l (NYSE)
Anglo American (Nas)
Arch Coal (NYSE)
Bema (AMEX & Tor)
Cameco (NYSE & Tor)
Canico (Toronto)
Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE)
Crystallex (Toronto)
Desert Sun (AMEX & Tor)
Eagle Plains (Toronto)
Gold (NY)
Lihir (Sydney & Nas)
Maverick Tube (NYSE) |
Meridian (NYSE & Tor)
Newcrest Mng (Oz)
Newmont (NYSE & Tor)
Novagold (AMEX & Tor)
Orezone Res. (AMEX & Tor)
Perseverance (Oz)
Rio Tinto (NYSE)
SGI
SGS (A/D line)
Sherritt (Toronto)
Teck Cominco (Toronto)
TREND INVESTORS
USD (NYBOT)
Yamana Gold (AMEX & Tor) |
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Newmont Mining
Back Burner Section (gold
shares)
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###
Who is Harry
Schultz?
Chevalier
Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS, is the highest paid investment consultant
in the world at US$2,400/hour-US$3,400/hour on weekends (International
Edition Guinness Book of Records 1981-2002).
To keep in
touch with developments around the globe, Harry draws from correspondents
in many countries, plus mountains of international newspapers,
magazines, and other data. At the top command posts of Harry's
elite team are Chief Market Analyst, Paul Griffiths, and Research
Editor/geopolitical analyst Gordon Frisch. Loyal HSL and GCRU
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Harry is regularly
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(the "alternative press"). Arthur Hailey, a longtime
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Dorsey in the bestseller The Moneychangers, directly on Harry
Schultz.
Harry has lived
for extended periods in 18 nations, and shorter periods in many
others. Knighted five times, Harry is a man for all seasons and
a true citizen of the world.
Contact: E-mail:
HSLmentor@racsa.co.cr
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