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Harry Schultz Life
Strategies 
~ For THINKING
humanoids ~ (in 80 nations)
 The art of investment is the art of
selling
Harry Schultz
[who,
FYI is now collecting giraffes]
Archives
extracted from
HSL #645 of Jan 23, 2005 -DJIA 10,393
posted February 7, 2005
US$327 for a 1
year! subscription
Gold
As timer-trackers
noticed, HSL continued to call the mkt well. So far so
good . I said lastime my upside target was
460-467. We got to 460.10. I then warned that gold's winning
streak would need a rest soon & to prepare for it. I said
it might correct to only 430-420 but maybe 400. That correction
began at 460 & is still in progress. The low so far: 420.
••• In my Gold
Charts R Us (the Bible for gold devotees) I printed a
theoretical road map for gold! It shows a 5-stage progression,
3 down, 2 up. Each stage tradable within itself. This
format may be too rigid, may break its mold, but, so far, each
stage has performed by the book. No mumbojumbo, just price/time/charts.
We're possibly going to top out (so far) in stage 4 rally about
now in the 430-435 zone & will then, in theory, begin a descent
of about 4 weeks to say 400 (390-410), where we can begin buying.
I say begin because I assume most of U sold at higher
prices, as Gold Charts members did. In any case, almost
every gold chart now has overhead supply to fight through, so
pick&choose with care. Look for base building or down wedges
& breakouts to guide U. Don't buy just because XX is
a lot cheaper than it was. Each gold chart is a different country,
has its own personality & quirks; learn them & trade
them.
••• By the way, bullion (futures) have been more
profitable to trade than gold shares lately, more true-to-chart,
less fluky.
• What role has the US$ played in gold weakness? A big one,
as usual. The US$ got oversold. I said so in GCRU
(published each Wednesday) & we bought the
$ for the ride. The $ will rise more (see Currencies)
& 'til its ride is over, gold will languish. It's shorterm,
but will scare some.
••• Short positions are recommended for
those who understand or want to learn shorting & will
use stops.
••• Richard Benson of Specialty Finance Group
writes "Do U wonder why our govt is so actively involved
in keeping the price of gold down? The logical reason is: if
the gold price takes off, even the investment masses will look
for the real problems (& structural causes)
of massive trade & federal deficits & global money creation."
Better not let 'em notice.
••• Shanghai Gold Exchange shows 235.35 tons
of gold valued at 22.96 billion yuan (US$2.7 bil; euro 2.3 bil)
was traded in 2003. In the first 7 mos of 2004, trading volume
jumped to 363.76 tons valued at 36.9 bil yuan (US$4.5
bil; euro 3.6 bil). It's lagging data, but shows steep uptrend
in vol & value.
••• The art of investment is the art of selling.
Always plan to sell whatever U buy, usually as soon as possible,
& often several times-as U learn the nature of the item &
its mkt. Buying is a lesser skill, & holding
requires no skill.
••• Random gold stock comments: Possible
bullish down wedges in Glamis, Iamgold, Newmont, NorthgateEx.
Novagold: breakout from symmetrical triangle; a buy. Head&Sholder
tops in many stks, eg, AAUK, MDG, NRD, TEKB, WRM. EPL-V: dble
top. Trouble is: even the bullish wedges are only for rallies,
not reversals. So golds are, at best, still in a corrective mode.
I hope by the next HSL, it'll be over & we can plan
widespread buying with chart backup.
••• Got to go feed the giraffe now. Hope U thought
this was a 5-giraffe HSL.
Bye from your Uncle Harry D (for Droll)
Schultz
Lots & LOTS more follows
for subscribers,
Harry Schultz
Archives
©Copyright
1964-2005 F.E.R.C.
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