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Two Key Charts . . .

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
August 20, 2004

Extracted from the August 19, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks

Oil --I'm including two key charts below. The first shows light crude in what's looking increasingly like a parabolic rise. Back last December the 50-day moving average for oil rose above the (red) 200 day MA, and it was gang-busters on the upside from there. As you can see by RSI at the top of the chart, oil is now overbought. But these parabolic rises can continue up at an astonishing and accelerating rate, so I wouldn't get in line to short oil.

I wouldn't short oil for two reasons.

One -- Everybody's shouting "It's the top, it's the top."

Secondly, the point&figure chart projects oil to 55. Of course, P&F projections don't always happen, but it's a thought. So far, rising oil doesn't seem to frighten consumers. However, if oil does reach 50 I think it's going to frighten Wall Street.

Gold -- Below we see a daily chart of gold. Here we see the rising 50-day MA for gold climbing toward the also rising 200-day MA for gold. A crossing with the 50-day above the 200-day MA would be a big plus for gold. In the meantime, if spot gold can close above 410 that would obviously be a breakout on the chart and another plus for gold.

At the bottom of the chart we see the blue histograms moving above zero and turning bullish. All in all, it appears that gold has built a strong base, it has gotten rid of most of the Johnnie-come-latelies, and it could be getting ready for an attack on the highs at 430.

Again, there's no hurry, and the longer and larger the base, the better the chance that gold will "go for the gold."

(One share of the Dow buys 24.52 ounces of gold).

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Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters

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