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The Stealth Bull

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
Aug 16, 2003

Extracted from the Aug 15, 2003 issue of Russel's Remarks

There's also a "stealth bull market" operating, and I'm referring to the sneaky bull market in gold and gold stocks. At its April 2001 low, gold was selling at 260 an ounce. Today gold is selling at 365 an ounce. That's a gain of 40% since April 2001. I'd call that a bull market.

At its October 2001 low, the unhedged "gold bug's" gold average was priced at 36. Today HUI is at 181, That's a rise of 405%. I'd call that a bull market, wouldn't you?

So if gold and gold shares are in a bull market, how is it that nobody is noticing? And if, by some chance, they do notice, how is it that they sneer at gold and claim that it's just a commodity, and that it's going nowhere?

Well the reason there's no publicity being given to the bull market in gold is that gold is the "uninvited guest" at the Fed's party. But you can't fool all the people all of the time. Lincoln said that, and Lincoln knew what he was talking about.

You see, I have a theory, and my theory is that gold, even the idea of gold, is embedded deep in man's psyche. It's almost in man's DNA. The lust for gold opened up Alaska and the Yukon territory. The search for gold opened up California and the West. The search for gold made South Africa rich. The first metal mentioned in the Bible is gold. Steel may build factories and apartment buildings, but gold builds nations. In other words, you can BS the public about gold for a while, but not forever.

Here's the central banks' problem. If gold heads higher in a dramatic way, people will start asking questions. "What's happening, why is gold rising in price? Is something wrong with the dollar? Why has Rolex raised the prices of its gold watches?"

So at this strange and peculiar time in history, governments don't want higher gold. In fact, they don't want attention directed to gold at all. "Let it lie," says the Fed, "Let it do what it wants as long as it's not noticed by the crowd."

Which is fine with Richard Russell and his subscribers, because it means that we can continue to buy "cheap" gold and "cheap" gold shares. And what's better than buying "underpriced merchandise" in the early stages of what promises to be a great bull market?

More follows for subscribers . . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters

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