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I hold the gold

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
Aug 5, 2003

Extracted from the Aug 4, 2003 issue of Richard's Remarks

Russell Comment -- It's obvious that somewhere ahead, and probably soon, the US will be forced to make some incredibly difficult choices. Bring in a lot more revenue or cut critical spending. Of course, there's a third way that the economists and politicians don't like to talk about. It's called paying the bills with fiat paper -- or inflation. My guess is that this is the way a lot of the bills will be paid. If so, the dollar is headed for "junk currency" status.

For all the above reasons, I believe that subscribers must hold gold and gold shares. It may be a rough ride over the near term, I really don't know. The Fed and the politicians will try to hide the truth from the American people. Gold or real money is "the truth." If gold starts running wild on the upside, people will start asking questions. The news will be reported in Newsweek and Time and even in the Wall Street Journal and in Barron's.

In any event, this is the picture that I see ahead. The US is forced to either raise taxes sky-high (politically and economically almost impossible), cut programs like Social Security, Medicare and even defense to the bone (politically impossible) or print the dollars required to finance the liabilities (can they print that much without destroying the currency?).

I don't have the answer. I never ran up the bills in the first place, and I don't know how to pay them in the second place.

I hold the gold and I pray for my five kids, the youngest being only 22. I survived World War II and the Great Depression. My kids will have to learn how to survive the future just as I had to learn to survive the '30s and '40s.

The generation that grew up after the mid-1970s is the first generation in American history that has never seen hard times. I'm afraid that will change for our kids and grandkids. They'll have to learn how to cope with hard times as my generation did.

In the Army Air Force during WW II we used to sing a song that ran, "Bless them all, bless them all, the long and the short and the tall" -- I bless them all again today -- your kids and mine. I really do.

More follows for subscribers . . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters

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