please click banner to support our sponsor.
Home   Links   Contact   Editorials

The times are out of whack

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
February 10, 2005

Extracted from the February 9th, 2005 edition of Richard's Remarks

Is intuition and gut feeling worth anything in this business? Some people claim yes, but I've always been dubious. As a matter of fact, I suspect that emotions can be your worst enemy when it comes to investing. I've often said that 90 percent of all decisions about anything from choosing a spouse to buying a house to taking a job to picking a hobby to buying a dog are based on emotions.

So what are emotions and intuitions worth? In life, they can steer you right. In the market, well, they can steer you very wrong. In my business, you gotta watch out for those deceptive emotions.

Nevertheless, I'm going to unload my emotions (I'd rather call them intuitions) on you, my beloved subscribers. Here goes -- I have the feeling that "things" just aren't going right. Too many people are now struggling to make ends meet. Too many people are having a hard time making a living in jobs they don't like. Too many people can't find any jobs at all. Too many people are finding that they can't afford to retire. As a result, many people in their 50s and 60s are taking jobs or at least looking for jobs. Younger people (and I meet a lot of them) are holding two and even three low-paying jobs just to stay afloat. Too many people are too deep in debt. Too many people are living in homes they can't afford. There's too big a division between the American rich and the American middle and lower-middle class. There's too much spread in salaries between workers and CEOs. To put it succinctly, I get the feeling that "the times are out of whack."
Meanwhile, the war in Iraq drags on. The US deficits and debts continue. The President's "approval ratings" drops below 50 percent. Housing turnover is beginning to slow. Nobody can agree on Social Security. The Democratic party deteriorates and the Dems fail to even come up with a presentable leader.

"What's it all about, Alfie?" And the answer is, "Who knows, maybe Russell just got up today on the wrong side of bed." But you know something -- I don't think so.

Hey, the market advisors are still cheery. The latest count from Investor's Intelligence shows bulls at 54.4% and bears at 25.3%. Those are hardly gloomy statistics (the problem, of course, is that we read these statistics on a contrary opinion basis).

Nevertheless, I get this feeling that almost everything is up and "over the top." The nation's wild optimism is almost exhausted. Suddenly, reality is starting to slap America's consumers in the face. "Hey, wake up Buddy, there's a crack in the punch bowl and the juice is running out."

Well, enough of the so-called Russell "intuition." . . .

more follows for subscribers . . .

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters

© Copyright 2005 Dow Theory Letters, Inc.

Richard Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.

He offers a TRIAL (two consecutive up-to-date issues) for $1.00 (same price that was originally charged in 1958). Trials, please one time only. Mail your $1.00 check to: Dow Theory Letters, PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038 (annual cost of a subscription is $250, tax deductible if ordered through your business).

321gold Inc