Precious Metals Market Timing
Go with the tide, and not against it

Ron Rosen
Nov 4, 2005

The road less traveled may be paved with gold but it has a silver lining. The W.D.Gann 30 year Master Cycle points the way.

The following are a few instructions from W.D.Gann.

"There is a time for everything." "All the laws of nature teach this. There is a time to sow and a time to reap. The four seasons of the year teach us that there is a reaping time and a sowing time, and that we can not reverse this order of nature's laws. It is the same with the stock market. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. You must learn to go with the tide, and not against it."

"It is the same with the commodity market. The young generations either have inherited money or they make money, and they want to take a chance. It is the nature of the young to gamble, to take chances, and to be fearless of danger. Therefore, the young generation is anxious and eager to try their hands at speculation."

"When you learn the past history of a commodity, learn the way it is running, what cycle it is in, and then make a trade on definite knowledge, your chances for success are 100 % greater."

"Nothing will help you more than going over the past history for commodities, and studying its actions under different periods. If you know what a commodity has done in the past, you have a better chance to determine what it will do in the future."

"The farther back you have a record of a stock or commodity and the more you study it, the more you will understand its actions and know when it is making tops and bottoms. You should become thoroughly acquainted with the stocks and commodities you trade, and by studying them, you will learn their individual moves which are peculiar to themselves."

"Everything moves in cycles as a result of natural law of action and reaction."

"Time is the most important factor in determining market movements because the future is but a repetition of the past and each market movement is working out time in relation to some previous cycle."

"By studying time cycles, you will learn why tops and bottoms are formed at certain times. In order to be accurate we must know the major cycles."

"30 year cycle"

"This is the main cycle and the minor cycles are proportionate parts of the 30-year cycle or circle."

W.D.Gann, thru his massive studies, discovered the importance of time in the markets. However, he did not have the ultimate timing tool. We do, and it is called the Delta turning points. The Delta turning points cover the intermediate, medium and long term time factors.

Combining the W.D.Gann 30 year Master cycle and the Delta turning points we can arrive at an approximate time for a major silver bottom. The charts posted below will be our guide. One is from the past, 30 years ago, and one is from the present. Before we look at the charts let's review the importance of the 30 year cycle.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE 30 YEAR SILVER CYCLE.

Silver bottomed on November 3, 1971.
30 years later Silver made a double bottom on November 26, 2001.

Starting on November 3, 1971, silver advanced for 2 years, 3 months and 23 days.
30 years later starting on November 26, 2001, silver advanced for 2 years, 4 months and 7 days.

Silver topped on February 26, 1974 and had a vicious decline of 43%.
30 years later Silver topped on April 2, 2004 and had a vicious decline of 45%.

Silver bottomed on January 26, 1976.
30 years later Silver is due for a Delta long term # 4 low on February 15, 1976.

In addition to Gann cycle studies and Delta turning points, I have observed that the waves from Elliott Wave movements always terminate at a Delta turning point. I have found this to be a most valuable observation when attempting to project wave movements. We know when the Delta turning points are due but without Delta we can not know when any Elliott Wave is due. With Delta we have what Elliott was missing. The Gann Master cycles, Delta turning points and the Delta turning points used to project Elliott wave movements are the three most powerful market tools I have observed. My observations cover a 50 year period.

On to the silver charts. One is from the past and one is from the present.

The 30 year cycle in silver is repeating.

Silver is still headed for medium # 6 low due November 16th.

Gold medium # 6 low may be in or is very close.

Medium # 5 high may still be ahead.

Elliott Wave Theory

CRITICISM

"The theory is far from universally accepted. Critics deride it as being too vague to be useful, since there is not always a clear definition of when a wave starts or ends, and prone to subjective revision." Wikipedia

Elliott Wave theory would be of much greater value if you knew in advance when a wave would top or bottom. The Delta turning points provide the information that the best of wave theorists have never had. Delta can tell you when to expect a completed wave. No more guessing, no more waiting for a pattern to complete in order to know when the wave will terminate. The Delta turning points are an invaluable companion to the Elliott Wave Theory. Without Delta the wave theory is a guessing game. Ralph Nelson Elliott said that the wave theory is best used to identify a completed move. That information is valuable but it is not predictive. Combining Delta with wave theory you will know approximately when the next wave will terminate. "Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse" -W.D. Gann.

Delta, W.D.Gann and Elliott Wave Theory combined are the "Trinity" of technical analysis. Time has been the missing ingredient with the wave theory. It has been found by using the Delta turning points.

Stay Well,

Nov 3, 2005
Ron Rosen

email: rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com

Tee charts reproduced courtesy of The Delta Society International.

321gold Inc