October 2005
Update on Silver Companies
Sean Rakhimov
Oct 10, 2005
Editor: Silver Strategies
We received a good deal of
feedback to the first
article of this series and took it upon ourselves to provide
a periodic update on silver companies that have had significant
developments in the given stretch of time. We found this exercise
useful for ourselves as well as those readers who took the time
to send us their comments. The purpose of this overview is to
reflect on some of the news that did/could/should have a substantial
impact on company's operations either immediate or longer term.
We own shares in most companies
mentioned herein; if that is a problem for you, please read no
further.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSX.V-ASM)
Avino has been on our radar
screen for a quite some time. It is one of the few companies
with a history going back several decades and the same management
team has navigated the company through boom and bust cycles for
many years. In fact Avino, history reads like "who is who"
of the silver world. In their day the great Paul Sarnoff and
Jim Blanchard thought enough of Avino to invest in the company
and recommend it to others (if interested contact David Wolfin
at Avino for details of their forays). In January 24, 1994 issue
of Barron's Jim Dines featured Avino's stock chart along with
his interview. Bob Bishop of GMSR has followed Avino since 1988.
So what was it all about? The
company has other properties, but it was mostly about its namesake
Avino Silver & Gold Mine in Durango, Mexico. Over 27 years
of operation the mine produced 16 million ounces of silver and
was shut down due to low silver prices in 2001. In the last year
of operation the mine produced 1 million ounces of silver and
close to 1 million ounces of silver equivalent in gold and copper
credits. What has changed since? A lot.
For starters, silver, gold
and copper prices have gone up with copper just making a new all-time high so the main reason the mine was shut
down is no longer there. More importantly, the company just received
approval to acquire remaining 51% stake in the Avino project
that it didn't already have and consolidate full ownership of
the property by issuing up to 4 million shares of Avino. This
is very important for the company as it opens up many exciting
opportunities.
There are three categories
of assets on the property:
1. Tailings from prior production.
2. The underground mine.
3. 11,000 hectares of highly prospective land around the mine,
of which no one inch has been explored by modern exploration
methods.
At this point the company is
looking at the tailings project as the fastest way to generate
cash. It bears noting that this is one of the old "Spanish"
mines that has been discovered back in the 1500s and mined in
some way, shape and form ever since. Recovery grades in those
days tended to average out at about 35% and based on prior estimates
there are some 6,000,000 ounces of silver and 35,000 ounces of
gold in those tailing. To confirm these numbers a feasibility
study is under way that should be completed in November, 2005.
If proven correct, the company
could start processing tailings by the end of 2006. The total
value of tailings material is about US $50 MM and it will only
take 3-5 MM $US of upfront capital expenses. Not big numbers
by themselves but they will allow the company to become profitable
and develop its other assets on this and other properties.
Early in 2003, Avino commissioned
MineStart Management to examine the existing ore base, the feasibility
of re-opening the mine and also the feasibility of processing
the large tailings reserve. In a report dated April, 2003, MineStart
concluded that enough exploration potential exists at the property
to "develop a reserve inventory to support a profitable
resumption of operations. Prior prospecting and preliminary exploration
has found encouraging mineralized outcrop and veins to the east
and north of the mine, and this justifies detailed exploration."
Long awaited consolidation
of ownership of the Avino Mine makes the company an attractive
takeover target. Larger companies, including Hecla Mining (NYSE:
HL) which has its San Sebastian silver mine in the area, have
already been circling Avino.
Minera Andes (TSX.V: MAI)
Minera Andes is an exploration
company focused on Argentina where it holds about 500,000 acres
of prospective land. The company's core expertise is exploration.
Its strategy is to bring in a partner to develop properties where
a discovery has been made and we just witnessed it work. Minera
Andes announced the completion of bankable feasibility study
on parts of its San Juan project of which it owns 49%.
The highlights of the feasibility
study are:
- Gold contained: 288,094 ounces proven and probable reserves
- Silver contained: 15,229,380 ounces proven and probable reserves
- Average gold production: 60,633 ounces per year
- Average silver production: 3,119,533 ounces per year
- Average operating cost: $200 per ounce of gold equivalent
- Start up capital costs: $61.2 million
These numbers are based on
US $6.50/oz silver, US$425/oz gold. A few comments are in order.
1. At first glance these look
like modest results. However, the main objective of this feasibility
study was to satisfy the bank's requirements for financing mine
construction and that is exactly what it achieved. A letter of
intent for such financing has been signed earlier this year.
2. The feasibility is based on the information available through
July, 2005. It does NOT include three new discoveries on the
same property announced
on September 22, 2005.
3. Such low reserve numbers are quite common for underground
mines as it is expensive and often unnecessary to do more drilling
beyond what's needed for the next 3-5 years of production.
4. Based on the feasibility internal rate of return (IRR) for
the company after taxes is estimated at 12.5 percent. At recent
metals prices the IRR is about 26.1 percent.
It's worth noting that plant
capacity used in the feasibility has been increased half way
into it which demonstrates confidence in prospects of the project.
While this is an important milestone for Minera Andes with only
15% of the San Juan property explored there is a lot of room
left for growth.
Minefinders Corporation (TSX: MFL,
AMEX: MFN)
Minefinders is a success story.
The company has made a discovery on its Dolores property and
is currently working on optimizing the feasibility
study completed in June 2005. The results of it based on
US$375/oz gold and US$6/oz silver are summed up in the following
table.
The study showed that these
reserves are complemented by an even greater amount of measured
and indicated resources so in effect with some drilling reserves
could be doubled.
Sounds great right? It does
to us. The company has other properties where ongoing work is
yielding some very encouraging results as well. So what's the
problem? We looked long and hard for it and could not find one.
While the company has been delivering excellent results the stock
has sold off and as of this writing the market values it at about
C$206 MM or roughly about US $170 MM. Subtract from that US $35
MM the company has in the bank (as of end of September, 2005)
and you arrive at US $135 million market cap. We are puzzled
by such a valuation as it is seriously undervalued compared to
other companies with similar reserve and resource base.
If our hunch is correct and
this is just another case of market overshooting on the downside
(as it often does both up and down) the situation should correct
itself and bring valuation of Minefinders in line with its peers
in the sector.
Palmarejo Gold (TSX.V: PJO)
We first learned about Palmarejo
from several Australian readers who wrote us asking the same
question: why is this company not on our site? Indeed, we looked
closer and found that it was a legitimate question. We're happy
to say this oversight has since been corrected.
It's not uncommon in mineral
exploration business for a company name to reflect the intent
but not the results of its work and companies looking for one
metal to end up finding more of another. We've seen it in the
case Western Silver (formerly Western Copper), Esperanza Silver
(great gold grades at two of its properties), Capstone Gold (primarily
a silver company) and so on. The same is true about Palmarejo
Gold as 2/3 of its assets are in silver.
The company is 82% owned by
Australian gold producer Bolnisi Gold. Silver and gold bugs will
recall that Bolnisi is the company that walked away from what
turned out to be a great property, namely Ocampo, to concentrate
its efforts on the Palmarejo property. Bolnisi felt it was a
better prospect with superior economics and formed a separate
entity to capitalize on its expertise in Mexico. That company
is Palmarejo Gold.
The company is very well known
among Canadian Securities Firms as some of them, including Haywood,
Sprott and Dundee completed research reports on Palmarejo Gold
(available here).
When institutions take their time to look at your properties,
it usually means the company has the goods. What does PJO have?
The following table is taken from the company's presentation
dated September 27, 2005.
As of this writing the company
has delineated about 3.1 million ounces of gold equivalent resources
at 65:1 silver-to-gold conversion ratio. The table above shows
the break down by resource and mineral categories. Given the
fact that the company is less than a year old, these are excellent
results. Palmarejo is working to upgrade the quality of its resources
from inferred to measured and indicated as well as expand them.
A feasibility study is planned for Q1, 2006.
There are several
other old mines in the area within 10 miles that offer potential
for growth. Last, but not least, the management roster of the
company is rather impressive which leads us to expect more positive
results in the near future. For more information on Palmarejo
Gold we refer you to above mentioned detailed reports.
In Brief
- Silvercorp Metals (TSX:
SVM) moved up to TSX. The company completed a 77% earn-in on
its high-grade Ying Silver Project in the Henan Province of China.
- Sterling Mining (Pink Sheets: SRLM) - Preliminary reports
from Baroness Tailings project indicate silver production of
about 20,000 oz/month for Q2, 2005. As work continues to increase
recovery rates and processed tonnage the company expects increased
output. Look for a formal update from the company on this project.
Oct 26, 2005
Sean Rakhimov
editor: Silver
Strategies
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Information
contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable,
but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not intended to constitute
individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your
personal financial situation. The opinions expressed herein are
those of the author and are subject to change without notice.
The information herein may become outdated and there is no obligation
to update any such information. The author, entities in which
he has an interest, family and associates may from time to time
have positions in the securities or commodities discussed. No
part of this publication can be reproduced without the written
consent of the author. ©Copyright 2004-2010 by Sean Rakhimov.
All Rights Reserved.
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