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Gold and Silver topping?

Bob Moriarty
April 2, 2004

Few people will ever tell you this but the people who lost all the money in the 1975-1980 metals bull market were the bulls, not the bears. They made a lot of money on the way up and were terrified of selling. Actually almost none of the gold "advisors" ever told their followers to sell.

I'd love to be one of those gold and silver cheerleaders who do nothing more than tell people what they want to hear but I'd rather be right than popular. Those readers who have been around for the last 30 months or so have done well and I will continue to call them as I see them.

There have been some good calls and this one is going to be unpopular but I'm going to do it anyway. I don't like the moves I am seeing in gold and silver and they look toppy to me. I expect a spike high in both commodites in the next few days and then a long correction. Even though we have been more or less correcting since the 1st of December, nothing goes straight up for years in a row. 2001 was good, 2002 and 2003 were great. It may well be time for a rest.

Personally, I'm going to go to a much more conservative position, higher on cash and in a much smaller number of companies but a higher quality of stock.

I still really like Cardero. It would be a buy and hold if copper was selling for $.70 again. They have some marvelous projects. No one I know is even smart enough to put a high side figure on them. They will be drilling soon. James Dines just discovered them as a iron company and more writers will be writing about them in the days to come. I predict they will be the #1 gainer in Canada for the year.

Vangold and New Guinea gold are in the process of drilling at Feni and will start coming out with results in the next six weeks or so. Vangold owns 75% of the project, New Guinea Gold the rest. The project has moonshot potential and if they found nothing but pretty rocks, neither stock is overpriced given the number of high-potential joint ventures they have.

Cardero Resource Corp.
http://www.cardero.com/ (CDU-V $3.74 Canadian CUEAF $2.86 US) 38 million shares or so total.

Vangold Resources Ltd.
http://www.vangold.ca (VAN-V $.65 Canadian VNGRF $.49 US) 21.5 million shares or so total.

New Guinea Gold
http://www.newguineagold.ca (NGG-V $.80 Canadian NGUGF $.61 US) 46 million shares or so total

Bob Moriarty
April 2, 2004
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