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Few geopolitical issues are of greater importance to resource investors than the outcome of current US policy in the Middle East, a policy that runs the risk of alienating regimes with their hands firmly on the spigots of global energy supplies. In this article, geopolitical analyst extraordinaire Richard Maybury shares his famously-prescient views on the future of Iraq.

The Hoax of Democracy in Iraq

by Richard Maybury
Jun 23, 2005

Iraq's January 30th election was a glorious day, and a great success, say federal officials and the mainstream press.

A step toward promoting democracy in the Middle East, it was, but is that a good thing?

For Westernized Muslims - those who want their highest law to be democratic - perhaps so.

For the rest who want their highest law to be Islamic, it's a catastrophe, and further incentive for them to become guerrillas, or give aid and comfort to the guerrillas.

This Western love of democracy is nothing short of ridiculous. Read the literature of the American Revolution. Try to find just one mention of the Minutemen or Sons of Liberty fighting for democracy.

They were fighting for liberty, which is something much different than majority rule. In the Federalist Papers, Madison, Hamilton and Jay made it very clear they had no love of democracy.

In Federalist Number 10, Madison warned that democracies "have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths."

India got rid of the British in 1947, and went democratic. Then Indians spent 44 years voting for socialism, meaning voting to stay locked in poverty and strife.

They did not start getting rational, and more prosperous, until their free-market reforms began in 1991.

What really happened in Iraq's January 30th election?

Like scores of other countries, the Iraqis joined the Americans-for-a-day club.

Previous members of this club have included the Afghans. They voted, and now almost the entire place is run by warlords, drug lords and various other types you would not want to meet in a dark alley.

Russians got democracy, and what did they vote for? Fascism. President Putin is well on his way to being another Mussolini.

A key point about Iraq is, for about fifteen years, Kurdish children have been raised in schools that have not been controlled by the central government, but the remaining 80% of the population have been taught to be rabid statists. Liberty is a complex system, even most Americans no longer understand it - certainly no one in the federal government does - and we'd be foolish to assume Iraqis will be any more enlightened about it than, for instance, the Russians.

The two fundamental laws taught by all religions are what make civilization possible. This first law is: do all you have agreed to do. The second is, do not encroach on other persons or their property.

Each religion expresses these laws in different ways, but all teach them. Widespread obedience to these laws is liberty.

The type of government a country has is not very important. What counts is the extent to which the government obeys the two laws. A dictatorship that adheres closely to the laws is far preferable to a democracy that roundly ignores them.

What we do know about the Iraqi election is that the Iraqi economy is a wreck. Official statistics show the unemployment rate stuck at 30-40%, and some economists estimate it at over 50%. This is far more serious than the worst year of America's Great Depression. We can safely say Iraqis who turned out to vote were doing so in hopes their votes would somehow lead to a better life.

Washington now must deliver that better life, and quickly, for these people are desperate; millions turned out to vote in the face of death threats. If their way of life does not improve dramatically, in a few weeks or months, a lot of them will decide they have nothing to lose by joining the guerrillas.

Was the Iraqi election really the triumph that U.S. politicians boast about? Maybe, but my guess is that like Russia, Iraq will begin moving in the direction of fascism, and all their problems will be blamed on America.

Richard Maybury

Richard Maybury is the amazingly farsighted analyst who unequivocally predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, the war in the Balkans and 9/11.

To read more about his views on the war against Islam and the implications for the U.S, you'll definitely want to check out his eye-opening new report: Why Islam Will Win.

Owning a financial website puts me in the fortunate position of being given many free subscriptions, but there are two that I signed up for, and paid for, many moons ago, and Richard Maybury's Early Warning Report is one of them. -Bob Moriarty

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