Huge Gold Action and Earth
Shaking Change Imminent
Chris Laird
www.PrudentSquirrel.com
May 17, 2006
It's been several weeks since my last public article, and man,
what a few weeks for gold!
I just got finished with my latest subscriber edition, and said
that the precious metals would probably correct as much as $100
this week, and lo and behold, Monday it drops $40 already.
Since January, gold rose over $200, something that is
really out of the box for gold's price action in the last 30
or more years.
I was talking with a subscriber about the gold action and the
probable sources of the huge price swings. I will outline some
of that discussion here. My conclusion is that we are in for
earth shaking changes politically and economically. Hold on to
your hats.
First of all, I have to point out that these kinds of price swings
in gold indicate that major change is on the horizon for the
world. The changes are going to affect everyone's life on this
planet. If gold was not moving so strongly up and down, my prognostications
for the future would be more sanguine.
Because gold is the historical money par excellence, it has a
singularly unique tendency to telegraph any major change for
better or worse. Gold reacts directly and immediately to world
political developments, economic developments, social developments,
war developments.
In my work, I have focused 100% of my gold study on macroeconomic
trends and world political developments. I have found this method
very fruitful in understanding precious metals. I have not used
charting, mathematical modeling of price activity, Fibonacci
ratios, or other methods. This, even though I am a mathematician
myself.
Rather, being a student of history as well, I have found that
macroeconomic news, and political developments are the primary
drivers of the precious metals markets. The study of charts and
other methods are very secondary ways to forecast where metal
prices are going.
One of the most significant benefits of my approach is that I
get a very good idea of what is happening in the world politically
and economically as a direct benefit to my study of precious
metals. And this leads me to make the following observations
about gold's price action this year:
The world is about to change radically... in every way, and
you and your life are going to be directly affected, and soon
too.
So, let me get down to brass tacks and explain myself, and, gold's
heavy price activity this year.
First of all, let me begin with a specific example. Typically,
the US fiscal and trade deficits are given as reasons for the
gold spike since 2000. And this year, the two hundred dollar
gold price increase has come amidst the usual discussion of the
US deficits.
However, these deficits have been out of control for over 5 years.
Why is it that, all of a sudden in 2006, gold prices rise over
$200, or about 30% in a few months?
Answer: this year we face the imminent demise of the USD system
combined with a world energy war brewing in the Middle East.
When I say the USD system, I mean the fact that it is the world's
reserve currency. The demise of the USD system will have apocalyptic
economic consequence for YOU.
The typical answer for gold's price rises in the financial press
is the twin US deficits. Certainly, the twin deficits are a prime
driver of the case for gold price increases. However, I have
a particular problem making this correlate specifically to a
recent $200 upswing in gold prices. There have to be other very
serious factors out there, and there are.
The US fiscal deficits are serious, but we have had these for
years. The very recent price swings of gold are being driven
by fear of a US dollar collapse that will kill the USD
SYSTEM. This, coming at the same time that there is a world energy
war brewing in the Middle East. The fact is, since January, 2006,
the two impeding events driving gold are a world energy war brewing
and the impending collapse of the USD system, not just a US economic
crisis. Things are much worse than that. Fear is driving gold
prices.
Regarding Iran and the controversy over their nuclear program,
the fact is that Iran sits all across one side of the Persian
Gulf, where much of the Middle Eastern oil flows out to the world.
The Middle East has about 2/3 of the world's known oil reserves.
The tension in the Middle East in a major reason for gold's price
rises, and there are many reasons for this.
I am going to delineate how Middle East tensions are affecting
gold, but first I will jump ahead and say that, we are looking
at a major war brewing there, and probably China and Russia are
going to be siding with Iran, against the US and its few allies.
The war is going to be all about oil and natural resources.
This is one factor driving gold dramatically this year, and I
would hazard a guess that this war fear is a $150 reason for
gold's price increases.
Another factor driving gold in 2006 is the imminent change from
the US dollar system as a world reserve currency. The fact that
the US has twin trade and fiscal deficits are really only part
of the reason that gold is rising vs the USD. The real reason
gold is rising so rapidly this year is because the world is looking
at the probable demise of the whole USD SYSTEM. The fiscal deficits
are a side show to this potential sea change for world economics.
As a matter of fact, the impending demise of the USD system is
so serious that there is actual fear among world central banks
as to the implications. There is not just concern, there is fear.
The last time the world saw a major change in a world reserve
currency, it had no less than the great depression of the 1930's.
Right after that depression which enveloped the world, there
was a world war that decimated Europe, much of Asia, the Pacific,
Russia.
That war had well over 100 million casualties and changed the
world forever.
We are now looking at a similar situation to the events just
preceding the Great Depression of the 1930's followed by World
War Two. Gold is specifically reacting to fear in many
parts of the world. Not just fear of a depression or recession
or unemployment, or just a USD crisis. It is fear of two things.
The two fears
The fear that is evident in the gold market is about a coming
war in the Middle East, combined with an imminent collapse of
the USD system. The effects of a war in the Middle East will
collapse oil shipments to 2/3 of the world. The effects of a
collapse of the USD system will also collapse 2/3 of world economic
activity for probably 5 to 10 years.
In other words we are looking at a world war coming and also
a great depression due to the collapse of the USD system. Your
life is about to change radically.
 Now the impending demise of the
USD system is nothing new particularly. Many writers have discussed
this issue, to include the notable book about a coming USD crisis
by Richard Duncan.
Since this issue has been so widely discussed, why is it that
gold is somehow rocketing skyward just now?
Surely the price increases in gold since 2000 are due to the
US fiscal problems and the well delineated US dollar crisis issue.
But why the all of a sudden explosion in gold's prices now?
Answer: a consensus has just formed in 2006.
The consensus is that the USD system is now going to collapse,
and even though central bankers don't know how to replace it,
it will collapse anyway.
A very key idea here is what a consensus is, and how it forms.
A consensus forms after events prepare themselves over time.
Suddenly, what was discussed now becomes an imminent fact
in many minds. Understanding this is key to showing why just
now, the world now is acting to prepare for a USD system collapse.
IF it is true that the danger of a collapse of the USD has been
known for some time, why just now are central bankers world wide
publicly discussing this fact? Because a consensus has now formed
among them. No less than the BIS, the EU central Bank, the Bank
of Japan, and the Chinese central bankers are all now simultaneously
talking of a radical change from the USD system.
The consensus has formed and gold is telegraphing this. Then
central bankers start making preliminary moves to react, and
for example, Chinese central bankers start discussing buying
2000 tons of gold to add to their 500 tons of gold reserves.
European central bankers start talking openly about being in
crisis mode, ie, what will they do if the USD devalues rapidly
this year, because then world markets will collapse. If the USD
collapsed rapidly there will be flight out of markets and selling
of USD assets and bonds.
Middle Eastern bankers, seeing an impending war with Iran, and
the collapse of their bubble markets start buying tons of gold
for flight to safety.
The US government publicly calls for a lower USD to deal with
the trade deficit and the world realizes that the USD will very
possibly have a disorderly decline in value because there are
trillions of dollars of foreign reserves overhanging the world
markets.
A consensus has now formed. The consensus is: the fears we have
all had about economic Armageddon are now at hand in 2006.
Now, Japan is having an economic resurgence. The US is having
some decent economic growth too. So, how is gold to portend that
all is definitely not well, and so energetically in 2006? Because
the fact is, if the USD system collapses, the economic growth
in Japan and the US will disappear in about one month.
China cannot tolerate this. China is very concerned that there
are two China's emerging after their economic reformation since
1990. There are now about 200 million wealthier Chinese and about
1 billion poor Chinese who are angry that their lands in the
country are being expropriated by the wealthy and corrupt officials.
Last year, China had over 50,000 public demonstrations about
these inequities, and China is very afraid of the chaos that
can happen there. China cannot tolerate an economic collapse
of the West.
Japan has just emerged from ten years of mild deflation that
left their government with the highest indebtedness of
the developed world. Japan's government bonds are classified
in the Junk category... did you know that?
Japan cannot tolerate a USD systemic economic collapse either.
Europe is hopelessly stagnating economically. France tried to
create employment reform for their industry, and got a million
student rioters for their trouble and had to relent. France last
summer had a month of out of control rioting by Muslims all over
the country, and Europe almost got dragged into their own Muslim
riots. Much of the reason for these riots are economic inequality.
France and Europe cannot tolerate any major economic disruption,
and, if the USD system collapses it will be curtains for the
political and economic security of Europe.
The problem is, no one can now stop a collapse of the irreplaceable
USD system.
Now let us look at gold in this 2006 picture;
- Every time there is bad news
about the Iran situation gold rises from 20 to 50$ in price.
- Every time China mentions
that they are considering a change in their 1 trillion US dollar
foreign reserves gold rises $20.
- Every time there is social
chaos in Europe gold rises $20.
- Every time Japan mentions
that they will raise interest rates gold jumps $20 because of
the chaos that an unwinding of the Yen carry trade will inflict
on world markets. Trillions of dollars value of Yen have been
borrowed and invested in every world market for the last ten
years.
- Every time the US mentions
that they are considering a pause in interest rate increases
gold rises $30, because the US positive interest rate differential
of about 3% over the rest of the world is the only thing keeping
the USD system from collapsing.
In 2006, a consensus has now
formed that all of the above events are about to happen, and
gold has risen $200 as a result.
The correction in gold this week is merely speculators taking
money off the table and is not going to continue. Rather, gold
will continue to rise in 2006, and worse, we are going to have
a world energy war and very probably a collapse of the USD SYSTEM
and all the economic collapses that would follow that.
If I were to say one thing it is this: being in any market today
is hugely risky. Be in precious metals. I would not necessarily
be in USD positions either, or in USD cash. The last time there
was an economic depression, there was flight INTO the USD in
the 1930's. This time, there is probably going to be flight OUT
of the USD. But I think that our economic woes are going to be
the smaller worry... rather war and huge energy disruptions are
the biggest problem we face in 2006.
Chris Laird
Editor in Chief
website: www.PrudentSquirrel.com
email: editor@PrudentSquirrel.com
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