Home   Links   Editorials

Special SKI Report #281
Bull Market Set-Up Still Intact and Approaching

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Dec 25, 2022
Published Dec 26, 2022

Current USERX price = 9.73, Down 26 cents (2.6%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on 12/04/22, noted that the rise to a new high on Friday (12/02/22) at USERX 9.99, had almost reached the next upside target area of USERX 10.00-10.12 (the 8/10/22 high). The intermediate-term trend remained bullish as SKI remained on its 35-39 index buy signal. But the most important conclusion was that: There is one opportunity for SKI to become longer-term bullish via a true 92-96 index bull market. During the next 2-4 weeks, USERX would need to decline to below the green 92-96 index line and then a brief rise to a quick new SKI bull market 92-96 index.

I’ll be concise because we’re busy with holiday family gatherings.

Don’t ask me “why” almost all gold stock bull markets are marked by the 92-96 day index. My colleague (deceased) and I simply: (1) Developed a formula for “finding all indices”, (2) Looked at the time frames (cycles) that yielded the largest gains AND losses, and (3) I then began to look for finer grained “index patterns”. There haven’t been mathematical changes since 1986. But Jeff changes as I gain experience and age (smile).

In recent years, this pattern occurred in the March-August 2020 bull, the Summer 2019 rise, and the January-August 2016 bull. Other parallels were 1979-1980, 1993, and Summer 2005 to May 2006. This is the index pattern that have yielded the 50-500%. IF the pattern occurs here, the most common result is a 100+% USERX rise (and often more in more volatile measures such as the HUI).

We’ve gotten the next step in the needed 92-96 index pattern. Last Monday’s (12/19/22) “plunge” to USERX 9.33 generated the 92-96 index’s sell signal. So the index sold the next day, on the solid rise back up to 9.61. And since index signals mark “wave points” (the technical spots), last Monday is likely to have marked a low.

The final (the 3rd) part of the process REQUIRES that the next index signal is the potential bull market 92-96 index buy signal (that would be On the Path of Trades and not XXed Out). That means USERX needs to get above the back prices from 92-96 trading days ago. The reason that I could target this time period is because the back prices are now (exactly) passing through the TOP on 8/19/22 at USERX 10.12. Notice how that price was referenced in the last Update 3 weeks ago. The exact index back prices for the coming days will be:

Mon (12/26/22):   Holiday                        

Tues (12/27/22):  10.12, 9.97, 10.12, 9.87, 9.96     Top 

Wed (12/28/22):   9.97, 10.12, 9.87, 9.96, 9.53

Those back prices will decline each day. That makes it EASIER for the index to re-buy. If USERX can hold up or rise during this coming week, the buy signal should occur towards the end of this week or directly into the New Year. Prices usually rise into the buy signal. There isn’t any historical requirement for a subsequent instant rise after the buy signal because the bullish period is measured in MONTHS.

The caveat is that the new 92-96 index buy signal hasn’t yet occurred and needs to be the next index signal. The potentially bearish scenario would yield an imminent decline to below the 16-20 index. That index’s back prices are RISING to:

Mon (12/26/22):   Holiday

Tues (12/27/22):  9.18, 9.40, 9.67, 9.96, 9.99

Wed (12/28/22):   9.40, 9.67, 9.96, 9.99, 9.70

The index is approaching the 9.99 high from the last SKI Report 3 weeks ago. Therefore, any brief decline would generate the “UNwanted” 16-20 index signal towards the end of this coming week. Jeff’s looking for the bull.

Warm Holiday Wishes to you and your family, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

321gold Ltd