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Special SKI Report #13
"On the Brink"

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

USERX | historicals
Dec 17, 2006

Special SKI Report #13

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold, since its inception approximately six years ago. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!

According to the SKI indices, the precious metals markets (stocks and bullion) are "on the brink", directly on the brink, right now, of the commencement of a major move. Note that I have not stated the direction of that move because the SKI indices are perfectly uncertain. The indices are marking last Friday (12/15/06) to this coming Monday (12/18/06) as the critical point. The direction of this major move should (really, "will"; he states with unusual confidence) be determined this coming week. Hence, you can read the bullish articles and you can read the bearish articles, but here's a rather unusual one stating supreme uncertainty that is about to be resolved in a major way as the indices have marked the critical point. I am prone to writing in a melodramatic, as well as a highly analytic/technical manner, but I'm telling you, a critical point is upon us! Silver, for example, just dropped a dollar in a day into a SKI index signal.

After writing weekly SKI Updates for 321gold since 2001, you may be aware that I only update every approximately three weeks since the opening of the SKI website in January 2006 (spurred by the SKI true bull market buy signal in August 2005). These updates have reported that the SKI indices remained in a true bull market from August 2005 until early September 2006. The last Update on November 25th 2006 reported that the indices were once again open to the beginning of a new bull market.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. A true bull market is signaled when the master 92-96 index buys (i.e., when prices have climbed higher than prices from 92-96 trading days earlier AND this signal is the lead signal among the three indices). Note that this is not the same as a moving average; prices don't just have to exceed their earlier prices; rather, a specific pattern is required. It is rare to obtain that specific pattern.

The last 321gold Special Report detailed the 32-year history of such SKI bull market buy signals. Essentially, the precious metals have never gone into a bull market without that pattern (there aren't any "false negatives"), but the pattern does not guarantee a bull market (i.e., there are "false positives" that sell out quickly at some small gain or loss). That article described how many of the false positives are identifiable via "XXing Out" and most importantly, THAT SKI WAS OPEN, AS OF NOVEMBER 20TH 2006, TO A NEW BULL MARKET SIGNAL.

That bull market 92-96 index buy signal did occur on 11/28/06. I was skeptical of it because we still had not negated the SKI historical "death run" from the May 2006 high (see the description and history of "death runs" and how they get negated in a prior Special Report. Nonetheless, the bull market signal was executed on 11/28/06 at USERX (the gold mutual fund) 16.17. Prices then broke out to the upside on the weekly charts and it seemed like almost everyone turned bullish as USERX soared to 16.94 a few days after the buy signal. That was obviously, in retrospect, a high. As prices declined back down to touch the 92-96 index, but then didn't rebound,

I sold at USERX 16.23. THE 92-96 INDEX HAS SOLD AND ENDED THAT POTENTIAL BULL MARKET SIGNAL, BUT THE SKI SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN NOW OPEN TO A NEW AND TRUE BULL MARKET BUY SIGNAL. Consistent with the 32-year history of SKI bull market signals, this one has sold quickly at basically some small profit or loss. PRICES ARE GOING TO EITHER PLUNGE OR THE INDEX WILL RE-BUY for what should be a tripling in prices over the next yearly SKI bull market. The market still hasn't negated the May 2006 "death run", but if the index gives its rare bull market buy signal, I'll have to follow its signal (and have to open a second website for the next bull market!? [bad joke]).

I am obviously writing this Special Report to entice you to become a long-term SKIer. As is reported above, SKI called the 2005-2006 bull market in August 2005 and sold in early September 2006. The system is open to a new bull market, but is "skeptical". Disclosure requires that I report that after having made large gains during that bull period (and gains in every year), SKI has not made any money (and in fact, has only "made" break-evens or small losses) for the past 6 months. For SKI it's been a frustrating period since the May 2006 high. Even this last bull market signal on 11/28/06 has yielded basically nothing. The markets require patience and perseverance, as always.

I'll write another Report for 321gold in a few weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription).

I also provide more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price and have several types of managed gold futures accounts (managed conservatively because I am at heart a "chickenski"; see:

The precious metals are in a very long-term (decade+) up-trend but are the most precarious, volatile, and psychologically difficult market in the world (in my opinion). That's the way it's always been.

Best wishes, Jeff
Written 12/17/06


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

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