 Special
SKI Report #13
"On the Brink"
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX
| historicals
Dec 17, 2006
Special SKI Report #13
I have been using my unique
SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals'
market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to
mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website
since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free
updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold,
since its inception approximately six years ago. SKI is a timing
service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market
timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done
for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!
According to the SKI indices,
the precious metals markets (stocks and bullion) are "on
the brink", directly on the brink, right now, of the commencement
of a major move. Note that I have not stated the direction of
that move because the SKI indices are perfectly uncertain. The
indices are marking last Friday (12/15/06) to this coming Monday
(12/18/06) as the critical point. The direction of this major
move should (really, "will"; he states with unusual
confidence) be determined this coming week. Hence, you can read
the bullish articles and you can read the bearish articles, but
here's a rather unusual one stating supreme uncertainty that
is about to be resolved in a major way as the indices have marked
the critical point. I am prone to writing in a melodramatic,
as well as a highly analytic/technical manner, but I'm telling
you, a critical point is upon us! Silver, for example, just dropped
a dollar in a day into a SKI index signal.
After writing weekly SKI Updates
for 321gold since 2001, you may be aware that I only update every
approximately three weeks since the opening of the SKI website
in January 2006 (spurred by the SKI true bull market buy signal
in August 2005). These updates have reported that the SKI indices
remained in a true bull market from August 2005 until early September
2006. The last Update on November 25th 2006 reported that the
indices were once again open to the beginning of a new bull market.
The SKI indices contain short-term
(16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days),
and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive
description of these mathematical indices and their history is
found here.
A true bull market is signaled when the master 92-96 index buys
(i.e., when prices have climbed higher than prices from 92-96
trading days earlier AND this signal is the lead signal among
the three indices). Note that this is not the same as a moving
average; prices don't just have to exceed their earlier prices;
rather, a specific pattern is required. It is rare to obtain
that specific pattern.
The last 321gold Special Report
detailed the 32-year history of
such SKI bull market buy signals. Essentially, the precious metals
have never gone into a bull market without that pattern (there
aren't any "false negatives"), but the pattern does
not guarantee a bull market (i.e., there are "false positives"
that sell out quickly at some small gain or loss). That article
described how many of the false positives are identifiable via
"XXing Out" and most importantly, THAT SKI WAS OPEN,
AS OF NOVEMBER 20TH 2006, TO A NEW BULL MARKET SIGNAL.
That bull market 92-96 index
buy signal did occur on 11/28/06. I was skeptical of it because
we still had not negated the SKI historical "death run"
from the May 2006 high (see the description and history of "death
runs" and how they get negated in a prior
Special Report. Nonetheless, the bull market signal was executed
on 11/28/06 at USERX (the gold mutual fund) 16.17. Prices then
broke out to the upside on the weekly charts and it seemed like
almost everyone turned bullish as USERX soared to 16.94 a few
days after the buy signal. That was obviously, in retrospect,
a high. As prices declined back down to touch the 92-96 index,
but then didn't rebound,
I sold at USERX 16.23. THE
92-96 INDEX HAS SOLD AND ENDED THAT POTENTIAL BULL MARKET SIGNAL,
BUT THE SKI SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN NOW OPEN TO A NEW AND TRUE BULL
MARKET BUY SIGNAL. Consistent with the 32-year history of SKI
bull market signals, this one has sold quickly at basically some
small profit or loss. PRICES ARE GOING TO EITHER PLUNGE OR THE
INDEX WILL RE-BUY for what should be a tripling in prices over
the next yearly SKI bull market. The market still hasn't negated
the May 2006 "death run", but if the index gives its
rare bull market buy signal, I'll have to follow its signal (and
have to open a second website for the next bull market!? [bad
joke]).
I am obviously
writing this Special Report to entice you to become a long-term
SKIer. As is reported above, SKI called the 2005-2006 bull market
in August 2005 and sold in early September 2006. The system is
open to a new bull market, but is "skeptical". Disclosure
requires that I report that after having made large gains during
that bull period (and gains in every year), SKI has not made
any money (and in fact, has only "made" break-evens
or small losses) for the past 6 months. For SKI it's been a frustrating
period since the May 2006 high. Even this last bull market signal
on 11/28/06 has yielded basically nothing. The markets require
patience and perseverance, as always.
I'll write
another Report for 321gold in a few weeks or you can shell out
the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available
by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap
enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum
of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual
subscription).
I also provide
more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher
price and have several types of managed gold futures accounts
(managed conservatively because I am at heart a "chickenski";
see:
http://www.tradegoldfutures.com
and
http://www.skigoldinc.com.
The precious
metals are in a very long-term (decade+) up-trend but are the
most precarious, volatile, and psychologically difficult market
in the world (in my opinion). That's the way it's always been.
Best wishes,
Jeff
Written 12/17/06
***
 SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.
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