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Special SKI Report #292
Gold Stock Special Update

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Oct 29, 2023
Published Oct 30, 2023

Current USERX price = 8.76, Down 16 cents (1.8%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

It’s been once again 2.5 months since my last public update. I’ve had recurring medical issues since July. It’s been a fatigue factor, but I REALLY need to post the potential rising factors. We’re just about 2% below my post on prior post on 8/18/23, but there’s the new potential low on 10/04/23 that could be an intermediate or long-term capital low. USERX retraced to 8.22 from its likely major low in late September 2022 at 8.09.

USERX has fallen to below all of the index’s that I keep (the 16-20, 35-39, 92-96, 221, 442, and 663 trading days). But there’s still my last index which is at 881-885 trading days. USERX has just traded the 884 index for the first time ever while below all of prior indices (from 1974). The 884 is a “contrarian” index that usually buys on declines and sells as prices rise. The index therefore executed its sell signal on 10/20/23 (Friday, a week ago): Prices rose to a new high of 8.93 from the oversold level of 10/04/23. There were multiple reasons for that to be an overbought sell area, but the index was set-up to generate a new buy within a week (short-term) for the index to buy again. It executed its buy last Thursday as prices fell for 4 trading days to 8.57. The 884 index executed its buy and the 884 index is so high that it cannot sell. That index is in the time frame of April-May 2020. Therefore the index is now rising towards that multi-year high in August 2020. USERX may rise to over 14.00 over months for the 884 index to generate its sell signal. There are likely to be future new buy signals via the 35-39 and/or 92-96 for regular indices.

I’m an empiricist with professor positions over 30 years. Yet I choose to first publicly display my colleague’s (deceased from 2020) “reflections” from 1984-1986 that have drawn my attention. He believed that he had a “window to heaven” and that he was told/directed to go to me and to develop these indices. He was on the faculty, but I didn’t know him. He showed up at the office stating that if “I had an interest in gold, he would develop indices for me”. I was surprised because I never stated that to anyone and responded “No one can do that, but I’m intrigued”. From the beginning, his stated goal was to make some money and to be a guiding hand from g-d. I took the first goal! After spending 35 years knowing him, speaking almost every day for the first 25 years, in September 2019 he simply called and merely stated “He was done”. I never heard from him but closely corresponded with his son. He really truly viewed his work as a goal for him to “guide me” and was pleased that his work was done.

My colleague’s statements also were that “After he was ‘done’ with SKI there would be “Death, War, and Inflation” projecting a further rise in the indices. We’ve certainly gotten that script. He further stated that an “Iranian nuke bomb over Israel” would be death on a worldwide stage. He stated that he couldn’t project the outcome of this war and that people were going to decide. He furthermore stated that after a great rise in the gold stocks that Jeff might die.

I’ve suddenly gotten Stage 4 cancer and then this horrible Mideast war that he projects was likely to spread. I don’t have any pain whatsoever and have normal blood tests. And when I had a stroke this summer, it occurred the first day of chemotherapy within a few minutes of my starting just fluids. I predicted in advance that I would pass out that day and it turned out that I was saved by being in that clinic and close to the surgery. Otherwise, I likely wouldn’t be able to verbally proceed (speak).

Anyway, it fits within the context for a rise.

Best wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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