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Special SKI Report #227
Completed Correction Inside of a Bull

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Oct 27, 2019
Published Oct 28, 2019

Current USERX price = 8.84, Up 5 cents (0.6%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report written on Sunday, 10/06/19, described 3 weeks of up-down “ping-pong” moves that continued to be marked rather exactly (within one trading day) by index signals. In the big picture, SKI remained on its June 2019 bull market 92-96 index buy signal and its almost simultaneous bull market 221 index buy signal.

But in the short-term, that last Report tried to clearly state that the gold stocks (USERX) were SKI-supposed to rise a little more into a first resistance 16-20 index sell signal. It had been 18 trading since the 9/10/19 16-20 index buy signal and during bull markets, prices are supposed to rise into index’s sell signal about 20 trading days later (at a profit).

I dislike sounding like I am “touting” SKI. But after 34 years of application based upon 45 years of data, the index signals keep marking the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term technical spots.

And so, after that last Report, the gold stocks rose into the 20th trading day (10/08/19 at USERX 8.93) and the expected/needed 16-20 index sell signal generated the next day. Therefore, the first resistance sell signal executed on 10/10/19 at USERX 8.81, 2 trading days after that 10/08/19 short-term high.

The index’s sell signal was immediately followed by a solid decline 3-day decline to USERX 8.30 (a slightly lower intermediate-term low). So let’s test your SKI-knowledge. What index signal occurs when the gold stocks immediately decline after a 16-20 index sell signal? Yes, it’s another supportive 16-20 index buy signal inside of a bull market. Therefore, the subscriber buy Update was sent on 10/15/19 for execution the next day. This buy signal was historically and SKI-theoretically “supposed to” mark the final corrective low within an on-going bull market. The buy therefore executed on 10/16/19 at USERX 8.44 and missed the supposed/expected low by 1 trading day (smile).

The gold stocks were then SKI-supposed to rise into at least another 16-20 index first resistance sell signal. Now, that short-term rise has occurred and the 16-20 index is about to generate/execute its next sell signal. This one isn’t really supposed to stop a renewed intermediate-term rise within a bull market. The renewed intermediate-term rise should be heralded by a 35-39 index buy signal (as USERX rises over the prices from 35-39 trading days earlier). That is historically supposed to occur 35-39 trading days after the prior 9/30/19 35-39 index signal that marked (as expected) an exact low (and a low that has not been exceeded in Gold Bullion). WE ARE NOW AT DAY 30, SO THAT BUY SIGNAL IS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR SOON… If not, the master 92-96 index’s back prices are flying higher. It’s been almost 92-96 trading days since that June bull market buy signal. An UNexpected plunge to below the prices from 92-96 trading days earlier would SKI-kill the bull.

Of-course, subscribers receive more detailed and timely details. And I thank them for being a highly stable long-term vote-of-support. But this is another “good technical spot” with index signals for this public SKI Report. I hope that it is helpful. Here we go.…

Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
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