Special SKI Report #7:
Patience is difficult to
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
written Sunday July 9, 2006
SKI Special Report #7
I have been using my unique
SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals'
market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to
work. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes,
Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at
the most informative gold site, 321gold, since its inception
approximately five years ago. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 32 years and that
is what they will continue to do!
The SKI indices contain short-term
(16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days),
and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. The long-term
92-96 index remains on its true and rare bull market since 8/09/2005
at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. As I've written
since that date, the precious metals are expected to rise over
many months and years until that index sells. That primary
index currently sits at a profit of approximately 95%,
down from the 123% profit at the 5/10/06 peak, with USERX ranked
as the number #1 performing mutual fund for 2006, currently
priced at 15.73. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical
indices and their history is found at my website.
Although I use USERX for analyses, the predictions are applicable
to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze
specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly
discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guestimate turning points in the precious
metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily
up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive
days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If
prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3
up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day,
the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have
referred to run patterns as "worms." A run pattern
is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed.
I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever
occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run
marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves. The
use of run patterns appears to have spread to other analysts,
as per Adam
Hamilton and Richard
This is now the seventh Special Report since the SKI website
opened and I won't bore you with a review of those prior Reports.
Please go to my archive
The last Special Report detailed
how the precious metals had generated a death run down from the
high on 5/10/06 that had marked the exact highs of all prior
major gold bull markets, but had just plunged to touch the master
bull market 92-96 index on June 13th 2006. Since that low, gold
and the precious metals stocks have rebounded sharply, with USERX
rising about 20% in just three weeks into another SKI index signal
just last week.
I strongly believe that a massive and lengthy Wave 3 rise lies
in front of us, but it's all a question of timing. Wave 3 may
have commenced off of the touch of the master 92-96 index on
June 13th or, if the 92-96 index sells out, the start of that
great rise may not occur for another year. Time is running
short for confirmation of the bull or the bear: The SKI indices
will require a resolution of the issue within one to four weeks
from today. I have basically been waiting, trying to be patient
since the last week of May. It has been about 6 weeks of waiting
for confirmation, one way or the other. The actual confirmation
time period began in earnest on the 35-39 index SKI signal executed
on 6/09/06. Confirmation is supposed to arrive 35-39 trading
days from that signal date. Patience is difficult to deal with,
but the wait is usually worthwhile.
I'll write another Report for
321gold in a few weeks (but I won't report that the "death
run" has or has not been negated until well after-the-fact)
or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly
Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if
you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website
for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or
more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent
intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price. And if
you remember, I don't want a subscription cost to deter "the
small investor" or "the person with special circumstances"
from subscribing/profiting. Seriously, if the above applies,
write to me at: email@example.com.
Best wishes, Jeff
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: firstname.lastname@example.org.
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