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Special SKI Report #7:
Patience is difficult to deal with

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

USERX | historicals
written Sunday July 9, 2006

SKI Special Report #7

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to work. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at the most informative gold site, 321gold, since its inception approximately five years ago. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 32 years and that is what they will continue to do!

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. The long-term 92-96 index remains on its true and rare bull market since 8/09/2005 at USERX (the gold stock mutual fund) 8.07. As I've written since that date, the precious metals are expected to rise over many months and years until that index sells. That primary index currently sits at a profit of approximately 95%, down from the 123% profit at the 5/10/06 peak, with USERX ranked as the number #1 performing mutual fund for 2006, currently priced at 15.73. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found at my website. Although I use USERX for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.

In addition to the unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guestimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms." A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves. The use of run patterns appears to have spread to other analysts, as per Adam Hamilton and Richard Russell.

This is now the seventh Special Report since the SKI website opened and I won't bore you with a review of those prior Reports. Please go to my archive at 321gold.com.

The last Special Report detailed how the precious metals had generated a death run down from the high on 5/10/06 that had marked the exact highs of all prior major gold bull markets, but had just plunged to touch the master bull market 92-96 index on June 13th 2006. Since that low, gold and the precious metals stocks have rebounded sharply, with USERX rising about 20% in just three weeks into another SKI index signal just last week.

I strongly believe that a massive and lengthy Wave 3 rise lies in front of us, but it's all a question of timing. Wave 3 may have commenced off of the touch of the master 92-96 index on June 13th or, if the 92-96 index sells out, the start of that great rise may not occur for another year. Time is running short for confirmation of the bull or the bear: The SKI indices will require a resolution of the issue within one to four weeks from today. I have basically been waiting, trying to be patient since the last week of May. It has been about 6 weeks of waiting for confirmation, one way or the other. The actual confirmation time period began in earnest on the 35-39 index SKI signal executed on 6/09/06. Confirmation is supposed to arrive 35-39 trading days from that signal date. Patience is difficult to deal with, but the wait is usually worthwhile.

I'll write another Report for 321gold in a few weeks (but I won't report that the "death run" has or has not been negated until well after-the-fact) or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week messages/alerts at a slightly higher price. And if you remember, I don't want a subscription cost to deter "the small investor" or "the person with special circumstances" from subscribing/profiting. Seriously, if the above applies, write to me at: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

Best wishes, Jeff
07/09/06

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
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Copyright © 2002-2019 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.


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