 Special SKI Report #188
Gold Stock Update: SKI-Bingo Intermediate-Term Buy Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jun 25, 2017
Published Jun 26, 2017 Current USERX price = 7.32, Up 43 cents (6%) since the last report 3 weeks ago. Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material
The last SKI Report (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern060517.html), written on Sunday 6/04/17, reported that all of the SKI indices were on sell signals after the 92-96 index had sold its buy signal that had generated on the day of the prior exact low on 5/04/17. SKIers were either in cash or short GDXJ (or equivalents) using a stop-loss of any USERX close over the prior high of 7.21. That Report concluded with "The SKI indices have been extraordinarily precise in marking each multi-week low and high since the bull market buy signal on 1/24/16. I've stated in several of these Reports that such precision 'has to' end at some time, but it just keeps on going".
It only took 2 trading days from that last Report for the gold stocks to spike higher on 6/06/17. That rise caused USERX to close over 7.21 and stop out the short position at a small loss. And so, the SKI indices had finally failed to precisely mark a meaningful top and instead, Jeff was stopped out of the short position at an exact high, but the SKI indices were set up for a buy signal on either a further brief rise OR a decline.
The ensuing decline to USERX 7.14 on 6/16/17 brought the 35-39 index (comparing the prices from that day to prices from 39, 38, 37, 36, and 35 trading days earlier) to within one day of generating its intermediate-term buy signal: If USERX rose at all, even by just one penny on Monday, 6/19/17, the buy signal would generate for execution the next day.
The gold stocks and gold all appeared to be declining on 6/19/17. GDXJ dropped 1.6%, the HUI declined 0.2%, and gold fell a solid $9.80. BUT USERX ROSE 2 CENTS TO GENERATE THE 35-39 INDEX'S INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUY SIGNAL FOR EXECUTION ON TUESDAY, 6/20/17. I've written for 17 years that people should follow the movements of the oldest gold mutual fund (founded in 1974) and apply the SKI indices primarily to that dependent measure. The price of USERX combines the movements of American, Canadian, and Australian gold mining stocks PLUS the daily currency movements in the U.S. Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, and the Australian Dollar due those multi-national holdings.
Conclusion:
It's only been 3 trading days since the intermediate-term 35-39 index executed its buy signal on 6/20/17, but this appears to be another exact SKI-Bingo marking an exact low. This type of buy signal usually yields a 1-3 month up-trend, but Jeff usually refrains from guessing how long the rise will persist or how strong the rise will be. SKI is supposed to mark the selling point when USERX rises up to a 92-96 index signal, similar to the resistance signal that executed on 2/23/17 at USERX 8.78 (just missing the 2017 high of 9.00).
If you look back 92-96 trading days from today (to the prices from 2/06/17-2/10/17), you can see that they are approaching that 9.00 top and will then begin to decline. When the SKI formula (provided with all subscriptions) generates its 92-96 index signal, that should be the next major resistance and I don't need to guess the day or the price ahead of time. That index signal may occur before or after the next public SKI Report in 3 weeks. This does not look like "Summer Doldrums" to SKI! Jeff + SKIers are long from the close on 6/20/17 and after a quick SKI-failure/loss, SKI appears to have done it again (smile)...
Best Wishes, Jeff If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved. 321gold Ltd
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