Current USERX price = 6.61, Down another 25 cents (3.6%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.
The last SKI Report (written on Sunday, April 28, 2019) described how the gold stocks (USERX) had formed a special/unusual 2 Up and 9 Down run pattern into 4/23/19 at 6.66 for some type of low. The sell-stop on short-term long positions was at 6.66. And the prior day’s (4/26/19) 2.7% surge higher to USERX 6.86 provided the opportunity for another bullish run pattern depending upon the gold stocks’ behavior on the next day (Monday, 4/29/18).
On 4/29/19, the gold stocks declined and the bullish run pattern did not occur. USERX had needed to rise another 2.3% and then decline the next day to complete an intermediate-term (several month) bullish 1 Down and 2 Up pattern right at or near a low. But again, that did not happen. Shortly thereafter (5/01/19), USERX was dropping to below 6.66 and that short-term sell-stop was activated for the typical small loss.
The ensuing drop to USERX 6.46, on the next day (5/02/19), has been the low-to-date for 2019. But USERX, HUI, GDX, and GDXJ (etc.) have not risen much during the subsequent two weeks into this weekend (and the HUI made a lower low just a week ago). The Australian gold stocks (12% of USERX) HAVE had a solid rise.
Beyond that short-term bullish run pattern on 4/23/19, USERX is below all three of the regular SKI indices (the prices from 16-20, 35-39, and 92-96 trading days earlier) in a bearish manner. The last 16-20 index buy signal (short-term) on 4/02/19 only yielded a 1-week rise and the indices are NOT set-up to provide a SKI buy signal in the short-term.
One scenario is sideways-or-higher movement in the gold stocks over the next 1-2 weeks. That would generate a 16-20 index resistance sell signal (since the index sells on rises) as USERX rises over the declining prices from a month ago. A quick hard decline after that sell signal would yield a true SKI buy signal from the 16-20 index (since the index buys on declines). That is not a “forecast”.
There are two other alternatives. One scenario is a rise that lasts a little longer to go past the 16-20 index’s sell signal, and briefly up to over the 92-96 index (whose back prices are topping at the January 2019 high of 7.07 and are about to decline over 2+ weeks to USERX 6.60). Therefore, if USERX is above that 6.60-6.67 area in a few weeks, we’d also get that 92-96 index signal. It would be a high-probability resistance (top).
There are intermediate-term and then long-term bullish SKI-scenarios, but they aren’t imminent, as they require at least some up and down waves to yield an actionable buy signal.
I don’t have anything particularly “extreme” or “important” to report.
Best Wishes, Jeff
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.