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Special SKI Report #184
Gold Stock Update

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Apr 2, 2017
Published Apr 3, 2017

Current USERX price = 7.61, Down 25 cents (3%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on Sunday 3/05/17, described the sell that executed on 2/23/17 at USERX 8.78 and the subsequent immediate hard decline in the gold stocks. That decline had reached a rather remarkable six SKI index signals on USERX and the HUI, but had not yielded any index buy signals. A further decline was expected.

Since that last Report, the gold stocks continued lower into yet another 3 simultaneous index signals on 3/09/17 for USERX at 7.51. Such a large group of simultaneous index signals appeared likely to mark a low based upon Jeff’s human judgment, but there weren’t any true SKI index buy signals. In fact, that decline had not only generated USERX 92-96 and 35-39 index sell signals, but had also generated a most disconcerting USERX 221 index sell signal and a supportive 663 index BUY signal. The 221 index is the master very long-term index (the equivalent of the master 92-96 index for the regular 16-20, 35-39, and 92-96 indices) that had last generated a buy signal on 2/05/2016 and was now selling for its 26+% profit. That’s a decent gain for one year, but the gain was “paltry” compared to when Jeff sold in the summer of 2016 for a 100% gain or even from the clear sale on 2/23/17.

The gold stocks and USERX then rebounded into 3/15/17-3/16/17 as gold had a decent $30 rise, but that rise generated more long-term sell signals as the contrarian 663 and 884 indices generated sell signals. Those indices are contrarian indices that sell on rises and buy on declines. Remember, those indices are based upon prices from almost 3 and 4 YEARS ago. Therefore, the 663 index had bought on the 3/09/17 low of USERX 7.51 and was then sold on 3/16/17 at USERX 8.09. That’s easy to see in hindsight for a nice 8% gain in one week, but Jeff had not bought on 3/09/17 due to my conservative personal approach.

The gold stocks have drifted lower since 3/15/17-3/16/17 and some small gold/silver stocks have actually declined to below their December 2016 lows (e.g., CDE, KLDX). USERX is still 1+% above its 3/09/17 low, but the gold/silver mining stocks have obviously been performing poorly relative to gold and silver.

Conclusion

As of today, USERX is within a few days of generating a new 92-96 index buy signal if USERX doesn’t decline another 3+%. The current situation is not clear, but always eventually resolves with patience. IF the buy signal occurs, there aren’t any guarantees, as SKI could easily get stopped out for a typical 3-5% loss. Furthermore, the master 221 index would need a 3+% rise over the next 1.5-2 weeks to generate a new master 221 index buy signal, and if that occurred, USERX would then need to rise to almost $9 in the subsequent 2 weeks to avoid a quick subsequent 221 index sell signal. Therefore, I cannot write a new prediction and that’s one of the reasons for the one-week delay in providing this public Report.

Lastly, I would note that the SKI Gold Futures service has been re-started at the request of subscribers. This is an auto-trading service whereby your gold futures account executes when Jeff executes a buy/sell on his futures account. The nice thing about this service is that there is no charge until an execution occurs and Jeff is rather patient and conservative. I only plan to execute such leverage when the next extremely high-probability index signal occurs. It takes time to set-up this paperwork, so if you have potential interest, please go to https://secure.skigoldstocks.com/index-futures.php to request the prior track record for the service that was established in 2006 and ended in 2011, as well as a contact from the broker, with no obligation. I want this to be set-up BEFORE the next major buy signal.

Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
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