Special SKI Report #217
Gold Stock Update: More SKI-Bingos

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Mar 24, 2019
Published Mar 25, 2019

Current USERX price = 7.38, Up 11 cents (1.5%%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report (written on March 3, 2019) described several short-term “SKI-Bingos” and concluded “The sharp decline last week is about to generate a short-term index supportive buy signal. Therefore, the gold stocks’ short-term trend should be about to bottom, the intermediate-term trend is likely down (bearish) from the 2/20/19 high, but the long-term corrective decline from the Summer 2016 high likely completed in the Fall of 2018”.

After March 3rd, the HUI executed its short-term supportive 16-20 index buy signal the next day (3/04/19). That immediate information was known as of the prior Friday (3/01/19) because index signals generate one day BEFORE the signal executes (designed to provide a 1-day notification) but had to be reserved for SKIers. The more reliable USERX 16-20 index generated its supportive 16-20 index buy signal on March 5th for execution on 3/06/19.

The gold stocks then dropped 2+% on 3/06/19. Therefore, the HUI’s 3/04/19 16-20 index buy signal marked the exact intra-day low and the 3/06/19 USERX 16-20 index buy signal marked the exact closing low for another short-term SKI-Bingo after a rather harsh 10% 2-week decline (from the likely intermediate-term high).

The ensuing short-term rise yielded 5 consecutive daily USERX rises. Yes, the HUI/GDX did not rise for 5 consecutive days, but, as always, one needs to follow USERX for useful run pattern information. The rise generated the next HUI and USERX short-term resistance 16-20 index sell signals (as prices rose over the prices from 16-20 trading days earlier). The HUI’s 16-20 index sell signal executed a day early, on 3/12/19 at 173.17. The USERX 16-20 index sell signal generated on 3/12/19 and executed at the exact closing high on 3/13/19 for another 1-week 8% gain (having bought on 3/06/19 at USERX 7.07 and selling on 3/13/19 at USERX 7.63). So that was yet another short-term SKI-Bingo.

And then the decline from the 3/13/19 top yielded yet another supportive HUI and USERX 16-20 index buy signal executing on 3/19/19. It’s only been a few trading days since then, so it’s too soon to conclude that the buy signal was correct. The HUI has risen for 3 consecutive days from that buy signal, but USERX dropped 2% on this past Friday (3/22/19) due to a harsh 3% decline in the Australian gold stocks that was led by one of USERX’s larger holdings (Santa Barbara; SBM.AX) that plunged 29% in one day. Such a huge 1-day drop is often followed by a rebound tonight/tomorrow, so don’t be surprised if USERX rises tomorrow even if the HUI/GDX decline. As always (since 1974), USERX is the index to follow for predictive purposes because it takes into effect the movements of multi-national gold miners PLUS the movements in multiple currencies.

Conclusion

After multiple very nice SKI-Bingos, the short-term trend is likely to be Up from last week’s 16-20 index buy signal, but there WILL be a SKI index sell signal within the next 6 trading days. I use the word “will” only when there is a 100% mathematical certainty. That certainty exists because any USERX rise will generate another 16-20 index sell signal AND any flatness or decline will generate a 35-39 index sell signal. And that’s all due to the fact that if you go back 16-20 trading days, you’ll see that those back prices are declining (the 16-20 index sells when the current price goes ABOVE the back prices), while the 35-39 index’s back prices are rising a little (the 35-39 index sells when the current price is BELOW the index’s back prices).

The 35-39 index has been on an intermediate-term buy signal for 3 months. Historically (since 1974), it usually sells by 3-5 months after it buys. Once that occurs, the SKI Path of Trades will open and we “may” get a renewed large rise that cannot yet be SKI-predicted.

You’re welcome, Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

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