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Special SKI Report #295
Gold Stock Update

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jan 28, 2024
Jan 29, 2024

Current USERX price = 9.48, Down 56 cents (5.6%) since the last report one month ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

In the last public update, I expressed long-term bullishness, but the result was on 12/25/23 was clearly selling: The result of “timing” the 35-39 index’s buy signal and several other factors resulted in clear overbought index signals since the buy on 11/13/23 at 8.32.

The entire month has been lower. The index made its high on 12/26/23. That was an over-extended high. Prices have declined down 10% in USERX and 14% in the HUI which has been hurt via a strong decline in Newmont Mining.

But now we have had a situation that has provided an index buy signal with a rising sell-stop. Last Wednesday, amidst the HUI’s large decline, the 221 index provided a bullish buy signal (from 218-222 trading days earlier) and the 35-39 index provided a somewhat bearish new 35-39 index sell signal. Such 2 simultaneous signals usually a mark technical spot of some importance.

Therefore, I’ve suggested new long positions with their rising sell-stops. The 221 index would sell if on Monday and Tuesday the USERX closes below 9.36. It then changes and will sell in 6 trading days because USERX’s back prices will rise towards 9.78. The 221 index’s back prices for next week are:

Mon (1/29/24):     9.11, 9.42, 9.54, 9.40, 9.37
Tues (1/30/24):    9.42, 9.54, 9.40, 9.37, 9.82
Wed (1/31/24):     9.54, 9.40, 9.37, 9.82, 9.99
Thur (2/01/24:      9.40, 9.37, 9.82. 9.99, 9.78
Fri (2/02/24):       9.37, 9.82, 9.99, 9.78, 9.89

Hence, again, a rising sell-stop. The positions may make changes: Making a new 221 index buy signal and then a new 35-39 index buy signal. Then the 35-39 index would provide a rising sell-stop. The 35-30 index's back prices for next week will be:

Mon (1/29/24):    9.69, 9.92, 9.76. 9.94, 9.58
Tues (1/30/24):   9.92, 9.76, 9.94, 9.58, 9.55
Wed (1/31/24):    9.76, 9.94, 9.58, 9.55, 9.45
Thur (2/01/24):   9.94, 9.58, 9.55, 9.45, 9.32
Fri (2/02/24):      9.58, 9.55, 9.45, 9.32, 9.10

A decline to a 221 index sell signal plus avoiding the new 35-39 index buy signal will warrant bearishness.
Best wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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