Special SKI Report #265
Remarkable Index Signals

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jan 23, 2022
Published Jan 24, 2022

Current USERX price = 11.46, Down 34 cents (3%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on 1/02/22, described how the gold stocks had risen into multiple RESISTANCES via a 16-20 index sell signal (as USERX had risen above the blue index line) and a hit/touch of the master 92-96 index’s green index line, see here. The rise had occurred off of a somewhat bullish 2 Up and 6 Down run pattern into 12/15/21 (that WAS a low). USERX had risen to 11.80. Although the 16-20 index was selling, this sell signal ACTIVATED Mechanical SKI for potential buy signals. Therefore, Jeff remained in cash but SKI was now activated to potentially provide one or more bullish index signals.

The ensuing quick 4-day 7% decline in the New Year fell below the prices from a month earlier. The decline to USERX 11.00 on 1/06/22 generated a Mechanical SKI 16-20 index short-term (but potential real bottom) buy signal that executed the next day (as always) at 11.10. The immediate 3-day rise to USERX 11.75 generated the normal quick short-term 16-20 index sell signal as Mechanical SKI took its 5% 1-week profit on 1/13/22 at USERX 11.68. As always, Jeff cannot “make this up” because it’s simple SKI-math: The contrarian 16-20 index buys on declines and sells on rises. The 35-39 and 92-96 indices would buy on rises.

After the 1/13/22 16-20 index sell signal, the gold stocks declined into last Tuesday (1/18/22) at USERX 11.25. The 16-20 index was just going to generate a buy signal if USERX remained below 11.51 on Wednesday (1/19/22).

Last Wednesday’s (1/19/22) powerful 7% gold stock rise to USERX 11.94 caused so many analysts to turn bullish. The rise avoided a Mechanical SKI 16-20 index buy signal on the last day, BUT the gold stocks then declined on Thursday and Friday. The 16-20 index’s back prices on Friday (1/21/22) were: 11.72, 11.58, 11.61, 11.57, and 11.48. USERX’s collapse on Friday to just below 11.48 has generated a 2nd supportive Mechanical SKI 16-20 index buy signal that executes on Monday (1/24/22). Nothing is perfect. A collapse below Monday’s buy signal is historically-associated with further major declines and “financial crises”.

Our 1984-1985 research also discovered the long-term SKI index cycles that have NEVER changed. Those 221, 442, and 663 indices are dominated by the master 221 index (that compares today’s price to prices from 218-222 trading days ago). The master 221 index bought on 3/27/2020 at USERX 7.08 (Jeff’s major 2020 buy was around there) and sold on 6/21/2021 at 13.24 for its 88% profit. Since that June 2021 sell signal, the gold stocks have risen to hit/touch that master index (the faded purple index line on the SKI chart) many times at each high, marking each high as the gold stocks (USERX) failed to get above the index’s back prices. It’s understandable that so many analysts turned bullish on this past Wednesday’s rise because the rise to above USERX 11.54 FINALLY generated a new 221 index buy signal after 7 months on a sell. I understand that this is too detailed/exact for most folks. SKI IS RATHER EXACT.

Here’s the SKI-exactness for 1/19/22-1/20/22… And so, the master 221 index executed its new BUY signal on 1/20/22 at USERX 11.89. But the index’s back prices were RISING and were at 11.48, 11.92,12.03, 12.19, 12.25. USERX needed to RISE to above 12.03 to avoid an instant generation of a 221 index SELL signal. The gold stocks (USERX) were rising to 12.04 for most of the day, but then declined with the general stock market in the last hour. The 221 index’s buy signal failed last Thursday in the final hour. The index’s back prices temporarily rise (into the Mid-March 2021), so the index isn’t likely to bullishly re-buy during this coming week.

In conclusion, Mechanical SKI provides a renewed bullish 16-20 index buy signal executing tomorrow (1/24/22), but the long-term 221 index marked its resistance on this past week’s rise and failed. Therefore, Mechanical SKI turns short-term bullish again but remains longer-term bearish. THE GOLD STOCKS HAVE BEEN SO CHOPPY (UP AND DOWN) that it’s difficult to follow these 3-week Updates. If the gold stocks can hold after Monday’s (1/24/22) buy signal, SKI can yield a Triple Buy index pattern during the next 1-2 weeks. The word “can” isn’t a prediction. The bullish set-up IS present. The last and only Triple Buy since 1974 was in December 2002. If one Google-searches for that HISTORIC BULLISH public report, it’s almost disappeared. The internet is NOT a store of human knowledge. The past knowledge disappears. The internet has dramatically deteriorated from the 1980-1990 years when I used it as a means to scientifically communicate…          

Best Wishes, Jeff 

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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