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Special SKI Report #197
Gold Stock Update: Yes, That was the Potential Bull Market Buy

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Jan 7, 2018
Published Jan 8, 2018

Current USERX price = 8.04, Up 77 cents (10.6%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on Sunday 12/17/17, described how SKI was quickly approaching the execution of a new potential bull market buy signal for the gold stocks.

That 92-96 index buy signal did execute on 12/18/17 at USERX 7.34. And the gold stocks (and gold) have gone rather straight up since then. They appear to be overbought in the short-term and gold has risen for an extraordinary 11 consecutive trading days, so Jeff keeps expecting a brief decline. That still has not occurred, but can still occur during this coming week. SKI does not “care” about such short-term declines because these 92-96 index buy signals typically yield 100+% gains over 6-12 months.

SKI will remain long until USERX generates a 92-96 index sell signal. That occurs when USERX is below the prices from 92-96 trading days earlier. If you look back 92-96 trading days from this past Friday, you’ll see that USERX was rising from its 8/08/17 low towards its 9/07/17 high at 8.27. During this coming week, the index’s back prices will rise into the 7.70+ level. Therefore, USERX should not (“will” not) go below those index back prices.

And then the index’s back prices rise up to the 8.27 September high. Therefore, within exactly two weeks from today, USERX must have risen again or the 92-96 index will bearishly sell. That’s all that really matters.

If the 92-96 index remains on its buy signal, SKI should/will mark intermediate-term lows via 16-20 and 35-39 index signals. That’s what has occurred during all of the bull markets since 1974. During the 2016 bull market, the 16-20 index executed buy signals at the two exact intermediate-term lows on 4/04/16 and 5/27/16. Such a buy signal is UNlikely to occur for at least another month.

In conclusion

I tried to provide you with the bull market buy signal in the 12/17/17 public SKI Report, but could only state (in deference to SKIers) that it was “quickly approaching”. The buy signal did execute on 12/18/17 and SKI is in a bull market until the 92-96 index sells. While “everyone” appears to be focused on the general stock market, USERX has risen more than the general stock market since its late December 2016 low and the bull market buy signal provides the possibility/likelihood of a much larger rise in 2018.

Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.


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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved.

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