Current USERX price = 8.79, Up 27 cents (3.2%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.
The last SKI Report was written on Sunday, 9/15/19, and noted how the timing was fortunate because it coincided with the SKI index pattern that met the “SKI-definition” of the first “corrective decline” since the beginning of the June bull market. The gold stocks had declined harshly into a 16-20 index buy signal (as USERX, HUI, GDX, etc. fell below the prices from 16-20 trading days earlier) that executed on 9/10/19 at USERX 8.76 and had declined into a 35-39 index “sell” signal that executed on 9/13/19 at USERX 8.52 (as USERX fell below the prices from 35-39 trading days earlier). Therefore, the 35-39 index had marked Friday (9/13/19) as the next Price X Time technical point at USERX 8.52 for a potential “typical” bull market corrective low.
That was an exact low. The gold stocks then gained 9-10% over the next 7 trading days. That rise went back over the prices from 35-39 trading days earlier to generate a 35-39 index buy signal on 9/24/19 when USERX rose to 9.35. Index signals reliably mark the technical points (lows, highs, “break-outs”, and “break-downs”). Frankly, that buy signal could have marked a high OR a bullish “break-out” during a bull market. When the gold stocks plunged on 9/25/19 and thereafter, it was apparent that the index signal had marked a high. This next index signal actually missed marking a high by 1 trading day because the signal executes the day after it generates (to give us a 1-day notice of the technical point). Therefore, it executed on 9/26/19 at USERX 9.04.
The quick fast decline went back below the 35-39 index once again! The signal generated on Friday, 9/27/19, for execution the next trading day. Prices are expected to decline into the execution of the index signal. Therefore, the harsh decline on 9/30/19, all the way down to USERX 8.44, was not surprising AND that index signal could once again mark the next corrective low during a bull market. The ensuing immediate rise during the past week strongly indicates that this next index signal on 9/30/19 marked an exact low.
NOW, USERX’s rise over the past 4 consecutive trading days (since 9/30/19) is in the process of going back over the 16-20 index’s back prices (that are at USERX 8.80, 8.76, 8.82, 8.70, and 8.52 tomorrow) but not over the 35-39 index. In the short-term, the gold stocks are supposed to rise into this next index signal in a few trading days. This up-coming 16-20 index sell signal is first resistance. Will it mark the next technical point?
Why does Jeff predict this short-term continuing rise into a 16-20 index sell signal? The prior 16-20 index supportive buy signal on 9/10/19 at USERX 8.76 was/is “SKI-supposed to” eventually sell at break-even or a profit within 16-20 trading days from the buy signal. As was written at that time, “The next 16-20 index sell signal (on a rise) is likely to occur at around USERX 8.76 or higher within one month from the buy signal”. AS OF THIS PAST FRIDAY, WITH USERX NOW AT 8.79 (smile), IT HAS BEEN 18 TRADING DAYS FROM THE PRIOR 16-20 INDEX BUY SIGNAL.
I hope that helps,
Best Wishes, Jeff
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