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Special SKI Report #183
Gold Stock Update: Bingo-Decline

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Mar 5, 2017
Published Mar 6, 2017

Current USERX price = 7.86, Down $1.02 (11.5%) since the last report 3 weeks ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

The last SKI Report, written on Sunday 2/12/17, was titled “Intermediate Top Coming Soon” despite SKI/Jeff’s bullishness. The upside target was the USERX 92-96 index’s resistance that was stated as likely to occur “before the next free 321gold Update in 3 weeks”. Did you listen to SKI? Perhaps not, as you may be used to the subscription advertisers…

That last public Update warned that the USERX 92-96 index was the next upside target: “That index signal had an 80-100% historical probability (based upon the index signals since 1974) of yielding an intermediate-term (1-2 month) top. Nothing can ever be “guaranteed”, but Jeff is preparing to sell”. The historical probabilities were more accurately stated to subscribers as “an 80% probability of an immediate decline from the 92-96 index and a 20% probability of an ‘eventual’ decline to below that index, for a 99.9% probability that USERX will decline back below the master 92-96 index”.

Here’s the chart of the SKI Indices. The green line is the 92-96 index. Note how USERX rose to the 92-96 index green line and then plunged. The actual mathematical index signal generated on 2/22/17 for execution (always) the next day (so as to give a 1-day notice for action). The 2/22/17 special Intra-Week emailed Update started with:

SKI Intra-Week Update 2/22/17 3:30 PM PST
USERX = 8.71, Down another 12 cents (1.4%)
HUI = 208.52, Down 1.8%

This Update is being sent because the USERX and HUI 92-96 index has generated its expected resistance "buy" signal today. Therefore, Jeff and colleague are selling by the close tomorrow.”

Prices usually rise into the index resistance signal. So, on 2/23/17 (the execution day of the index signal), gold fortunately surged $18.20 and SKIers were supposed to SELL irrespective of an up or down day. And then the 80% probability plunge occurred. Conservative Jeffski did not go short, but sold it all at USERX 8.78 on 2/23/17 (always verifiable via the website’s Archives page that contains all emails since 2006).

Now, with USERX plunging to 7.82 on 3/02/17 to below the green line, the above SKI chart shows USERX hitting an incredible 6 SKI indices. The long-term indices were hit/touched to the exact penny for “potential” support at USERX 7.82. Jeff did not predict that. SKI is the only known mathematical prediction system that isn’t based SOLELY upon price or SOLELY upon time. The true prediction system needs to be based upon the INTERACTION OF PRICE BY TIME. When price X time interact, a technical (psychological) point is reached. Therefore, when Jeff states a time prediction OR a price prediction, by themselves, it is only an educated “guess”. The SKI indices mark the interaction of Price X Time point and Jeff never ever believes anyone who tries to predict a price target OR a time target in isolation. The market/nature has never changed in my 3 decades of experience via manipulation, fundamentals, or anything else but cycles/psychology/sentiment as the SKI indices have reflected for 3 decades. Do you believe my public postings for 16 years?

Conclusion

Subsequent to the 2/23/17 resistance index signal and decline, the next SKI technical/critical point was reached on 3/02/17 based upon an astounding six SKI indices coming into play at the same time. The world is not ending and this is not yet a SKI bull market (that HAD occurred 3 days after the low in January 2016 and yielded the SKI sells into the Summer of 2016, etc, etc., into the December 2016 low; read prior 321gold Updates).

Jeff is getting tired of writing these 321gold Updates after 16 years. The only positive feedback that I get is when folks vote some few dollars by subscribing to support my work with Jeff hiring folks to handle the “subscriber hassles”.

A further decline is likely to be “Armageddon”, so any Jeffski buy HAS to have an index sell-stop. SKI says a “Massive technical point was reached on 3/02/17-3/03/17” after the resistance index signal provided a 99.9% probability sell executed on 2/23/17. Jeff is prone to a establishing a new long position but has not yet quite decided…

Cheers and Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
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