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Special SKI Report #218
Immediate 3/28/19 Update

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

USERX | historicals
Written Thursday Mar 28, 2019
Published Mar 29, 2019

Current USERX price = 7.20, Down 18 cents (2.5%) since the last report 4 DAYS ago.

Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):

I have been using my unique SKI indices to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06 (yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible, that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.

The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20 trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term (92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description of these mathematical indices and their history is found here. Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum. In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals' market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated by the indices themselves.

New Material

I understand that you are likely to be tired of scammers and “no one knows anything”. This past weekend’s (3/24/19) 321gold SKI Update described how a sell signal was going to occur (100%) within the next 6 trading days.

This is the first time in 13 years that I’ve provided a current exact copy of a SKI report that is exactly timely (sent today to SKIers). Prior to that, I posted here quite frequently in a timely manner, but since it’s been so many years, I decided to provide TODAY’S exact SKI update (understanding that no one here can read it until tomorrow; 3/29/19) to demonstrate for the 1000th time some SKI index exactness. I won’t post again for another 3-4 week. Here is the daily SKI Message:

SKI Message 3/28/19 3:30 PM PST
USERX = 7.20, Down 27 cents (3.6%)
HUI = 170.30, Down 2.9%
Positions: Jeff sold his paltry 3% USERX today, otherwise my colleague sold his 100% position at the high 2 days ago on the HUI 16-20 index sell signal, Regular SKI remains long from USERX 7.07 on 1/03/19 but is approaching its sell-stop, and Long-Term SKI is in cash.

The gold stocks and gold (GLD) gapped strongly lower today and continued to decline. Yes, there is now a large open down-gap from today, but Jeff (UNusually) questions whether there will be a quick rise to fill that open down-gap. Gold dropped $20.60 to $1289.90.

The USERX 15-19 and Composite indices executed their sell signals today and the 16-20 index generated its resistance sell signal today for execution tomorrow because USERX closed 1-penny above 7.19. Yes, such USERX sell signals usually occur on rises, but Jeff did warn on Monday (3/25/19) that "Prices usually rise into that index sell signal, but the set-up is unusual here because the index's back prices are plunging: That signal could even generate in 3 trading days on a DECLINE". That possibility occurred today. Jeff takes no credit for "predicting it" but takes credit for the extreme diligence and time it took for me to compute/report that possibility.

The USERX 35-39 index was perfectly/exactly hit/touched yesterday and today's decline to below 7.41 fits the tedious SKI-math that was described yesterday FOR A POSSIBLE/LIKELY 35-39 index sell signal to generate in 2 more trading days. If USERX is below 7.41 tomorrow and below 7.32 the next day (next Monday), the sell signal will generate (to stop-out Regular SKI). THAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LIKELY.

The HUI's 16-20 index sell signal executed at an exact high 2 days ago. The HUI's 35-39 index was barely hit/touched today, moving towards a sell signal. The sell signal would generate in 2 trading days if the HUI plunges to below 166.47 tomorrow and remains below 166.47 on Monday.

The USERX run pattern is a meaningless 2 Up and 2 Down. A continuing plunge for 3 or more trading days would form a meaningful 2 Up and 5 or more run pattern to mark A MASSIVE HIGH or a high AND AND AND AND a low!

Conclusion

Almost no one would believe that last Friday's "anomalous" USERX decline, the extraordinarily "tedious" SKI-Math, and yesterday's exact hit/touch of the USERX 35-39 index was "significant/meaningful". Jeff "believed", but the rarity kept me from being "definitive" other than writing that we HAD TO GET A SELL SIGNAL within 6 trading days from the Weekend Update. How can one ever doubt exact SKI-ness when USERX just plunged 3.6% but stayed 1-penny above the price needed to generate the 16-20 index's sell signal today for execution tomorrow? (plus all of the exact mathematical "craziness" of the past week?).

Jeff sold the remaining 3% long position today because USERX was clearly dropping to below 7.41 AND I executed on the USERX 15-19 + Composite index sell signal. Yes, the HUI's 16-20 index sell signal marked the exact closing high 2 days ago.

There is the possibility of a further immediate crash. If USERX crashes again tomorrow to below 7.07 (that was the exact important price on the 1/03/19-1/04/19 index signals AND the exact low on 3/06/19 marked by a USERX 16-20 index buy signal), we would get an immediate/juxtaposed 16-20 index buy signal (that is not buyable) BUT we cannot generate 15-19 or Composite index buy signals for 2 trading days. Such 15-19 and Composite buy signals would then TIE with a 35-39 index sell signal AND even a major run pattern for a potential major low. Otherwise, if the USERX 35-39 index's sell signal occurs BEFORE the short-term index buy signals, this will be the BEARISH DOUBLE SELL index pattern described last weekend. That's all to be seen over the next few days and discussed this weekend.

We likely won't see such tedious SKI-Math for a few years. Jeff has NOT "given up" on the conclusion that the Fall 2018 USERX 6.25 low was THE long-term corrective low, so let's see over the next two trading days if we get the POTENTIAL important low.

And another "crazy thing" is that if you bought last week's 3/19/19 16-20 index buy signal using GDX, you'd still be at a 1% profit as of today's close! But I hope that you sold.

See you on Saturday, Jeffski”

You’re welcome, Best Wishes, Jeff

If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $25 (for a one month subscription) or more ($200 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum.

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email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com

Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.

Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
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