Copper Price Into Time &
(The Mania is Over)
October 14 2004
Utilizing the channels,
lines, and angles that we presented earlier this year we can
see that the copper price has achieved an upper goal. (Virtually
all significant highs and lows have occurred around one of six
parallel rising channel lines.)
The major bottoms are characterized
by descending triangles that have identical downtrend angles.
Breakouts of the angle see prices move higher for 13 to 16 months
with an interim high at 7 to 8 months (shown in the first chart).
Last March's high was at the ninth month from the breakout and
was followed by a 28 cent drop. The current run to $1.48 has occurred
in the 16th month. Following this point, the price typically
breaks by 35% to 43% in the following calendar quarter. This
calculation gives us targets just below $1.00; however the initial
support angle (dotted red lines) shows good support and a more
conservative break to only $1.15.
breakout of downtrend to major highs (semi-log)
- The accuracy of this method
is plus or minus one month.
- On the nearer term, it has
been likely that speculation in other items would culminate with
crude oil in early October. And, more specifically, against Ross'
target of silver setting its high on October 8 (the high close
was 7.26 on Friday, October 8).
October 12 2004