Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca
It has been 108 trading days since the Dollar bottomed on May 2nd and prices have advanced 9%. The 1995 low in the cycle saw a similar 8.4% rise over a period of 105 days. The cycle low in 1980 saw prices advance by 10% in 108 days. Each occurrence also exhibited a bearish divergence in the RSI(14) at this point of development. Based upon these examples we should look for an interim top soon that is followed by a 50% to 62% correction of the rally from the July-August lows (currently 76.55 to 75.82) that tests the 89-day exponential moving average and the 34-day Bollinger Band. This could take four to five week. If the Dollar holds at support it should be capable of pushing into the 90’s.
Daily charts: 1980, 1995 and current
in this report are solely those of the author. The information
herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee
its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared
for general circulation and is circulated for general information
only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives,
financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person
who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice
regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or
investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report
and should understand that statements regarding future prospects
may not be realized.