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The All-One-Market is about to correct
It could be a tradable move

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Sep 29, 2010

Gold and Silver Sector

  • Recently, we have thought that one of the keys to change would be silver, and the outstanding action registered a daily Upside Exhaustion on September 20. A top was expected within the next six trading days and today is Number Five.

  • The "exit" from silver would be prompted by a downtick on price or momentum.

  • The Silver/Gold ratio also set some RSI readings from which a high would follow by a week or so. That counts out to this week.

  • Gold, itself, has become a "Goldilocks" item whereby--as the Financial Post reported today--it is being recommended for "Inflation", Deflation" and "Hyperinflation".

  • Over the past few days, gold and silver stocks have been underperforming the action in bullion prices and that often anticipates a slump in the sector.


  • The Dollar Index RSI reached 27.5 on Friday which is almost to the level that ended the decline in early August. A price reversal up through 80.50 would be considered confirmation of a turn.

Stock Markets

  • Our Gold/Commodities Index (GCI) set its recent low at 354 on September 13 and, typically, the turn up has led the high on the NYSE senior indexes by 5 to 10 trading days.

  • This is Day Ten and Friday's close on the S&P was a new high for the move at 1148.

  • The key in April was 1217 and occurred on Day Six of the GCI count.


The "sunshine" expected in September has been very good and the action is now facing a weather change. The money market has appeared to be "easy" with low rates for treasury bills and narrowing of spreads as represented by the Ted-Spread.

"Unusually" low rates for short-dated instruments in the senior currency have been one of the features of a post-bubble contraction. However, reliable signals have been provided by a change to steepening in the curve, which seems to have started and by a turn to spread widening.

In the past couple of days the Ted-Spread has widened a little.


Sep 27, 2010
Institutional Advisors

Hoye Archives

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.

Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.

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