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The Chickens are Returning
A Retrospective On The Stock Market High

aka The Biggest "Cluster Cluck" in History

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Aug 26, 2008

The S&P high was 1576 set on October 11, 2007.

In late January, 2008 we noted the 55-day plunge in the Nasdaq and observed that, typically, that kind of a move ended outstanding bear markets.

We used the post-1973 and post-1937 rebounds as our "model".

It has been a good guide.

The prospect of a significant decline in equities was covered in our "Global Warning" of October 16, 2007 and "Disappearing Liquidity" a couple of days later when the sub-prime bonds broke down.


As discussed in Wednesday's Pivot, credit spreads and the yield curve have extended the move towards disorderly conditions likely to be suffered this fall.


Aug 22, 2008
Institutional Advisors

Hoye Archives

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.

Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.

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