INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS AUG 22 2008
The Chickens are Returning
A Retrospective On The Stock Market High

aka The Biggest "Cluster Cluck" in History

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Aug 26, 2008

The S&P high was 1576 set on October 11, 2007.

In late January, 2008 we noted the 55-day plunge in the Nasdaq and observed that, typically, that kind of a move ended outstanding bear markets.

We used the post-1973 and post-1937 rebounds as our "model".

It has been a good guide.

The prospect of a significant decline in equities was covered in our "Global Warning" of October 16, 2007 and "Disappearing Liquidity" a couple of days later when the sub-prime bonds broke down.

As discussed in Wednesday's Pivot, credit spreads and the yield curve have extended the move towards disorderly conditions likely to be suffered this fall.

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Aug 22, 2008
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

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