INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS AUG 22 2008
The Chickens are Returning
A Retrospective On The Stock Market
Biggest "Cluster Cluck" in History
Posted Aug 26, 2008
The S&P high was 1576
set on October 11, 2007.
In late January, 2008 we
noted the 55-day plunge in the Nasdaq and observed that, typically,
that kind of a move ended outstanding bear markets.
We used the post-1973 and
post-1937 rebounds as our "model".
It has been a good guide.
The prospect of a significant
decline in equities was covered in our "Global Warning"
of October 16, 2007 and "Disappearing Liquidity" a
couple of days later when the sub-prime bonds broke down.
As discussed in Wednesday's
Pivot, credit spreads and the yield curve have extended the move
towards disorderly conditions likely to be suffered this fall.
Aug 22, 2008
in this report are solely those of the author. The information
herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee
its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared
for general circulation and is circulated for general information
only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives,
financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person
who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice
regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or
investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report
and should understand that statements regarding future prospects
may not be realized.
Investors should note that income from such
securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price
or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive
back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily
a guide to future performance. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes
an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value,
price or income of any security or related investment mentioned
in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs,
whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying
security, effectively assume currency risk. Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.