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Gold Sector in a Post-Bubble Environment

Technical observations of

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Jul 14, 2008

We should be very close to the period where gold stages its next significant rally. The secular model, continued weak US Dollar, seasonality and COT data support this conclusion.


In the past eighty years there have been three secular bull markets in North American equities. The gold sector declines during these periods, then puts in an important low as the secular bull market crests (1929, 1966 & 2000), continues to rally through the post bubble high seven years later (1937, 1973 & 2007) and then extends again as other sectors give up ground in the eighth year (blue shading on charts).

Gold vs US Dollar

The US Dollar continues to stair-step its way lower. Since 2002, each rally that crossed above the 20-week exponential moving average (or conversely when the Euro crossed under its ema) has offered an attractive entry point in gold and related mining stocks. Support in the XAU and HUI is evident around the 20-week Bollinger Band during these corrections.


In recent years July has offered buying opportunities for a rally into the September- October time frame.


The GoldWorks COT model monitors the commitment of trader's data (provided by the CFTC) for extremes in the movement of positions of commercial and non-commercial traders. The latest signal from the model was a buy during the week of May 16th when commitments dropped to their lowest levels in eight months. The indicators have since been in a neutral position.

Jul 11, 2008
Institutional Advisors

Hoye Archives

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.

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