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The US Dollar, Euro & Gold

Technical observations of

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Apr 18, 2008

In the past three decades, once the Dollar became oversold (or conversely the Euro became overbought) the chance of a rebound to the twenty- or fifty-week moving averages increased dramatically. We are there now.

The Dollar produced a weekly downside capitulation alert the week of March 28th. The Euro staged weekly upside exhaustion alerts March 28th through April 11th. Couple this with a weekly sequential sell setup in the Euro as of April 11th and we are in a position to undergo a tradable dollar rally.

An offshoot of such a correction in currencies is a related decline in the gold price and related equities.


  • The dollar index has successfully completed the "Sequential Buy" pattern.
  • The euro has completed the "Sequential Sell" pattern.
  • Tradable moves in both, as well as the gold sector seem to have started.
  • The following cartoon emphasizes that a firming dollar could exacerbate still over-extended credit markets.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors


Hoye Archives

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