CHARTWORKS - APRIL 15, 2008
The US Dollar, Euro & Gold

Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Apr 18, 2008

In the past three decades, once the Dollar became oversold (or conversely the Euro became overbought) the chance of a rebound to the twenty- or fifty-week moving averages increased dramatically. We are there now.

The Dollar produced a weekly downside capitulation alert the week of March 28th. The Euro staged weekly upside exhaustion alerts March 28th through April 11th. Couple this with a weekly sequential sell setup in the Euro as of April 11th and we are in a position to undergo a tradable dollar rally.

An offshoot of such a correction in currencies is a related decline in the gold price and related equities.

WRAP:.

• The dollar index has successfully completed the "Sequential Buy" pattern.
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• The euro has completed the "Sequential Sell" pattern.
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• Tradable moves in both, as well as the gold sector seem to have started.
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• The following cartoon emphasizes that a firming dollar could exacerbate still over-extended credit markets.

-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

CHARTWORKS - APRIL 15, 2008

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