The Yen currently sits on the edge of vital support. A move below the January low would not only violate an important support it would also trigger a sell in the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator. This would put in place a potential double top over the one year period from January 2009 and an even more significant failure verses the high of 1995.
The negative divergence in the monthly RSI(14) that we are currently experiencing is similar to the tops in 2004, 1988 and 1978. Once the SAR was violated prices trended lower for eight to 10 months until the RSI(14) reached the mid 30’s.
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What happens when the Yen declines? Amongst other things Gold prices advance in terms of Yen.
In the past forty years a break in the Yen has become a trigger for the price of gold in Tokyo to breakout on the upside.
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